Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
39.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.130EPA / play+0.009
- 40.4%Success rate43.9%
- -0.101EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.184EPA / rush-0.060
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
- -4.63CPOE+1.03
- 40.5%Third-down rate41.3%
- 46.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.26Points / drive1.93
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 15/26 | 149 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yeldon | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keelan Cole | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 38 | 1 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 3 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 5 | 29 | 0 |
| David Grinnage | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| DJ Chark | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 17/27 | 183 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 24 | 106 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 11 | 82 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Tavon Austin | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Beasley | 9 | 11 | 101 | 2 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Rico Gathers | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Tavon Austin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Jamize Olawale | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Deonte Thompson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
6.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.5%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.54