2018 · Week 6

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

7·40

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

39.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

6.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.130EPA / play+0.009
  • 40.4%Success rate43.9%
  • -0.101EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.184EPA / rush-0.060
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -4.63CPOE+1.03
  • 40.5%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 46.2%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.26Points / drive1.93
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15DAL @ JAX34–40JAX
2014 · W10DAL @ JAX31–17DAL
2010 · W8JAX @ DAL35–17JAX
2006 · W1DAL @ JAX17–24JAX
2002 · W12JAX @ DAL19–21DAL
2000 · W9JAX @ DAL23–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DAL
JAXQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 12:55851Field goal0–3
JAXQ1 8:3633Punt0–3
DALQ1 7:13748Touchdown0–10
JAXQ1 3:47735Punt0–10
DALQ2 14:17984Touchdown0–17
JAXQ2 9:2836Punt0–17
DALQ2 7:551768Touchdown0–24
JAXQ2 0:41312End of half0–24
DALQ3 15:0039Punt0–24
JAXQ3 13:3435Punt0–24
DALQ3 12:413-5Punt0–24
JAXQ3 10:58992Touchdown7–24
DALQ3 7:31857Field goal7–27
JAXQ3 3:0610Turnover7–27
DALQ3 2:4834Field goal7–30
JAXQ3 1:1714Turnover7–30
DALQ3 1:10236Touchdown7–37
JAXQ4 14:54827Turnover on downs7–37
DALQ4 11:46715Field goal7–40
JAXQ4 7:07614Punt7–40
DALQ4 4:26611Punt7–40
JAXQ4 0:241-2End of half7–40

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles15/2614911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
T.J. Yeldon8415.10
Blake Bortles4225.50
Jamaal Charles551.00
Niles Paul1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keelan Cole45410
Dede Westbrook35381
James O'Shaughnessy34290
T.J. Yeldon35290
David Grinnage1170
Jamaal Charles1250
Donte Moncrief0300
DJ Chark0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott17/2718320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott241064.41
Dak Prescott11827.51
Tavon Austin2147.00
Rod Smith540.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cole Beasley9111012
Michael Gallup12270
Geoff Swaim22210
Rico Gathers11140
Ezekiel Elliott11110
Tavon Austin1150
Jamize Olawale1130
Deonte Thompson1110
Allen Hurns0500
Blake Jarwin0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

6.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.5%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.80
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.54