2014 · Week 10

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

31·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 50°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

DAL -7.5

Total

45

Model margin

-2.0est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapJaguars
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.161
  • 46.6%Success rate37.6%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.114
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +5.68CPOE-7.00
  • 47.6%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.36Points / drive0.97
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15DAL @ JAX34–40JAX
2018 · W6JAX @ DAL7–40DAL
2010 · W8JAX @ DAL35–17JAX
2006 · W1DAL @ JAX17–24JAX
2002 · W12JAX @ DAL19–21DAL
2000 · W9JAX @ DAL23–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–JAX
DALQ1 15:00544Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 12:09980Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 7:36625Punt3–7
DALQ1 3:2736Touchdown10–7
JAXQ1 2:30414Punt10–7
DALQ1 0:45619Punt10–7
JAXQ2 12:113-5Punt10–7
DALQ2 9:53565Touchdown17–7
JAXQ2 7:01412Punt17–7
DALQ2 5:48424Punt17–7
JAXQ2 3:59354Turnover17–7
DALQ2 2:34643Turnover17–7
JAXQ2 1:0737Punt23–7
DALQ2 0:31168Touchdown24–7
JAXQ2 0:1913End of half24–7
JAXQ3 15:00932Punt24–7
DALQ3 11:07687Touchdown31–7
JAXQ3 7:34622Turnover on downs31–7
DALQ3 5:043-1Missed field goal31–7
JAXQ3 4:015-3Punt31–7
DALQ3 1:1835Punt31–7
JAXQ4 14:48946Turnover on downs31–7
DALQ4 10:153-6Safety31–9
JAXQ4 7:55528Turnover31–9
DALQ4 6:42623Punt31–9
JAXQ4 3:20943Touchdown31–17
DALQ4 1:533-3End of half31–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo20/2724630
Brandon Weeden1/1800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray191005.30
Joseph Randle7568.01
Dwayne Harris1-2-2.00
Brandon Weeden3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant681582
Jason Witten57331
DeMarco Murray67310
Gavin Escobar11140
Cole Beasley11110
Lance Dunbar2270
Terrance Williams0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles22/3729001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Denard Robinson15604.02
Jordan Todman263.00
Blake Bortles331.00
Toby Gerhart420.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Cecil Shorts571190
Allen Robinson510600
Clay Harbor34280
Jordan Todman36270
Nic Jacobs11140
Marqise Lee13130
Denard Robinson23100
Ace Sanders11100
Allen Hurns1290

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.9%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.68%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.8%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.97