Closing spread
DAL -7.5
Total
45
Model margin
-2.0est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.161
- 46.6%Success rate37.6%
- +0.286EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.114
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.9%
- +5.68CPOE-7.00
- 47.6%Third-down rate32.0%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.36Points / drive0.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 20/27 | 246 | 3 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 1/1 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 19 | 100 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 8 | 158 | 2 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 22/37 | 290 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denard Robinson | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 2 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Blake Bortles | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 4 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cecil Shorts | 5 | 7 | 119 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 10 | 60 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 3 | 6 | 27 | 0 |
| Nic Jacobs | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ace Sanders | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.68%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.8%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.97