2022 · Week 15

Final / OT

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

34·40

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 54°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapJaguars
  • +0.031EPA / play+0.045
  • 45.2%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback+0.137
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.100
  • 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
  • -1.95CPOE+1.07
  • 46.2%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
  • 2.26Points / drive2.07
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W6JAX @ DAL7–40DAL
2014 · W10DAL @ JAX31–17DAL
2010 · W8JAX @ DAL35–17JAX
2006 · W1DAL @ JAX17–24JAX
2002 · W12JAX @ DAL19–21DAL
2000 · W9JAX @ DAL23–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–JAX
DALQ1 15:00834Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:37732Turnover0–0
DALQ1 7:25641Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 4:3133Punt7–0
DALQ1 2:511169Touchdown14–0
JAXQ2 13:01975Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 7:451166Touchdown21–7
JAXQ2 1:5536Punt21–7
DALQ2 1:31413Punt21–7
JAXQ2 0:41536End of half21–7
JAXQ3 15:00961Field goal21–10
DALQ3 10:35769Field goal24–10
JAXQ3 7:36412Turnover24–10
DALQ3 6:2737Field goal27–10
JAXQ3 5:21375Touchdown27–17
DALQ3 3:572-8Turnover27–17
JAXQ3 2:53439Touchdown27–24
DALQ3 1:2334Punt27–24
JAXQ4 14:17875Touchdown27–31
DALQ4 10:031375Touchdown34–31
JAXQ4 3:02636Turnover34–31
DALQ4 1:2830Punt34–31
JAXQ4 1:01641Field goal34–34
JAXOT312Punt34–34
DALOT427Opp touchdown34–40

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott23/3025632

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tony Pollard19753.90
Ezekiel Elliott16583.61
Dak Prescott5204.00
CeeDee Lamb111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb771260
Noah Brown69492
Tony Pollard45310
Peyton Hendershot11201
Dalton Schultz24150
Ezekiel Elliott22130
Michael Gallup1220

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence27/4231841

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Travis Etienne191035.40
Jamal Agnew35217.30
Trevor Lawrence3217.00
JaMycal Hasty11313.00
Snoop Conner133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zay Jones681093
Christian Kirk610920
Evan Engram810620
Travis Etienne23240
Marvin Jones26171
Jamal Agnew23120
JaMycal Hasty1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -44.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.37%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.9%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.44