Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play+0.045
- 45.2%Success rate46.6%
- +0.082EPA / dropback+0.137
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.100
- 9.6%Explosive rate9.3%
- -1.95CPOE+1.07
- 46.2%Third-down rate42.0%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate59.3%
- 2.26Points / drive2.07
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. JAX are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 23/30 | 256 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Pollard | 19 | 75 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 16 | 58 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 7 | 7 | 126 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 6 | 9 | 49 | 2 |
| Tony Pollard | 4 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Dalton Schultz | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 27/42 | 318 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Etienne | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 3 | 52 | 17.3 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 3 | 21 | 7.0 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Snoop Conner | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zay Jones | 6 | 8 | 109 | 3 |
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 10 | 92 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 8 | 10 | 62 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 6 | 17 | 1 |
| Jamal Agnew | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| JaMycal Hasty | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.37%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.9%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.27
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.44