2002 · Week 12

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

19·21

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Chad Hutchinson

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 63°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

Total

34

Model margin

+3.8est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.269EPA / play-0.190
  • 40.3%Success rate37.2%
  • -0.158EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.424EPA / rush-0.185
  • 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 33.9%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 29.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 0.22Points / drive0.79
  • 1.4%Turnover rate3.3%
  • +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

JAX lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W15DAL @ JAX34–40JAX
2018 · W6JAX @ DAL7–40DAL
2014 · W10DAL @ JAX31–17DAL
2010 · W8JAX @ DAL35–17JAX
2006 · W1DAL @ JAX17–24JAX
2000 · W9JAX @ DAL23–17JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–DAL
DALQ1 15:00666Missed field goal0–0
JAXQ1 12:17730Punt0–0
DALQ1 8:4337Punt0–0
JAXQ1 6:52521Punt0–0
DALQ1 4:16764Turnover0–0
JAXQ1 0:27315Punt0–0
DALQ2 13:0336Punt0–0
JAXQ2 11:2037Punt2–0
DALQ2 10:251-6Safety2–0
JAXQ2 10:182-1Turnover2–0
DALQ2 9:2846Punt2–0
JAXQ2 7:1532Punt2–0
DALQ2 5:3710Turnover2–0
JAXQ2 5:2633Missed field goal2–0
DALQ2 4:29469Touchdown2–7
JAXQ2 2:17865Field goal5–7
JAXQ3 15:00610Punt5–7
DALQ3 11:2014110Touchdown5–14
JAXQ3 4:1520Turnover5–14
DALQ3 4:0430Turnover5–14
JAXQ3 2:52838Touchdown12–14
DALQ4 14:16675Touchdown12–21
JAXQ4 11:091066Turnover12–21
DALQ4 7:39514Punt12–21
JAXQ4 3:38970Touchdown19–21
DALQ4 1:543-6Punt19–21

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell22/4020211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor201005.00
Mark Brunell2178.50
Stacey Mack4153.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jimmy Smith813900
Kyle Brady55400
Kevin Lockett36291
Fred Taylor33290
Bobby Shaw37140
Pete Mitchell0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Hutchinson16/2430122

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith20733.61
Troy Hambrick4389.50
Antonio Bryant133.00
Michael Wiley122.00
Chad Hutchinson410.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway791442
Ken-Yon Rambo23650
Troy Hambrick33330
Mike Lucky11220
Tony McGee11130
Emmitt Smith11120
Antonio Bryant12120
Darnay Scott0100
Michael Wiley0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.3%

Expected total

40.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.82