Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
34
Model margin
+3.8est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play-0.190
- 40.3%Success rate37.2%
- -0.158EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.185
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.2%
- 33.9%Third-down rate23.8%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 0.22Points / drive0.79
- 1.4%Turnover rate3.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 22/40 | 202 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 8 | 13 | 90 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 5 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 3 | 6 | 29 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Hutchinson | 16/24 | 301 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Troy Hambrick | 4 | 38 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Chad Hutchinson | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 7 | 9 | 144 | 2 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 2 | 3 | 65 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Mike Lucky | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Antonio Bryant | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.3%
Expected total
40.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.26
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.82