Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
44.5
Model margin
-1.2est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.010EPA / play-0.074
- 41.4%Success rate41.5%
- +0.066EPA / dropback-0.085
- -0.071EPA / rush-0.061
- 8.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- 42.8%Third-down rate36.8%
- 55.4%Red-zone TD rate46.9%
- 1.87Points / drive1.35
- 2.4%Turnover rate3.7%
- -0.022EPA / play allowed+0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
JAX lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 48.9 points. DAL are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DAL | Q1 12:51 | 10 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 7:41 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q1 3:32 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 1:40 | 4 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| DAL | Q2 14:55 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 11:58 | 4 | 44 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:33 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 3–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:21 | 12 | 80 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| DAL | Q2 1:20 | 4 | 8 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| JAX | Q2 0:22 | 4 | 21 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q2 0:09 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 17–7 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 79 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q3 7:01 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q3 3:34 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q3 0:10 | 10 | 53 | Missed field goal | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 8:53 | 6 | 29 | Turnover | 17–10 |
| JAX | Q4 6:24 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 17–10 |
| DAL | Q4 3:59 | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| JAX | Q4 1:07 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 17–17 |
| DAL | Q4 0:06 | 1 | -2 | End of half | 17–17 |
| JAX | OT | 7 | 66 | Touchdown | 23–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 20/24 | 231 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 31 | 107 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 41 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Shyrone Stith | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Brady | 10 | 10 | 138 | 1 |
| Alvis Whitted | 3 | 3 | 55 | 2 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 2 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cunningham | 13/20 | 177 | 0 | 1 |
| Troy Aikman | 4/5 | 43 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 24 | 102 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Warren | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Randall Cunningham | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 6 | 8 | 113 | 0 |
| Raghib Ismail | 5 | 6 | 57 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 3 | 3 | 34 | 1 |
| David LaFleur | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Damon Hodge | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.38%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.21