Closing spread
DAL -10
Total
37
Model margin
+4.9est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.086
- 45.5%Success rate37.6%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.059
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.118
- 9.8%Explosive rate9.1%
- +3.73CPOE-5.37
- 49.3%Third-down rate32.7%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate58.2%
- 2.18Points / drive1.35
- 2.6%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:30 | 11 | 35 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 7:26 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q1 0:34 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 7–3 |
| DAL | Q2 14:36 | 6 | 40 | Touchdown | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q2 12:43 | 11 | 41 | Punt | 14–3 |
| DAL | Q2 6:00 | 8 | 75 | Missed field goal | 14–3 |
| TEN | Q2 1:45 | 7 | 59 | Field goal | 14–6 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 14–6 |
| DAL | Q3 13:31 | 4 | 56 | Touchdown | 21–6 |
| TEN | Q3 11:53 | 0 | 0 | Punt | 21–6 |
| TEN | Q3 11:49 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 21–6 |
| DAL | Q3 10:23 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 28–6 |
| TEN | Q3 6:38 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| DAL | Q3 3:40 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 31–14 |
| TEN | Q4 13:04 | 6 | 21 | Turnover on downs | 31–14 |
| DAL | Q4 11:08 | 3 | 13 | Punt | 37–14 |
| TEN | Q4 8:31 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 38–14 |
| TEN | Q4 8:23 | 5 | 17 | Turnover | 38–14 |
| DAL | Q4 6:31 | 2 | 11 | Touchdown | 45–14 |
| TEN | Q4 5:43 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 45–14 |
| DAL | Q4 3:40 | 4 | 11 | End of half | 45–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Bledsoe | 13/20 | 179 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 23 | 122 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 9 | 55 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Terry Glenn | 1 | 22 | 22.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Thompson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Tony Romo | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 14/29 | 155 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LenDale White | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Chris Brown | 12 | 33 | 2.8 | 0 |
| David Givens | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Vince Young | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.00%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.1%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.09
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+4.97
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+4.89