Closing spread
DAL -6.5
Total
43.5
Model margin
+3.7est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.002
- 40.0%Success rate43.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.048
- -0.153EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.4%Explosive rate9.1%
- -0.87CPOE+2.25
- 34.8%Third-down rate40.4%
- 61.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
- 1.83Points / drive1.67
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/25 | 173 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 19 | 131 | 6.9 | 2 |
| Vince Young | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Britt | 4 | 6 | 86 | 1 |
| Damian Williams | 2 | 3 | 30 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 7 | 24 | 1 |
| Bo Scaife | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Craig Stevens | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Javon Ringer | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 31/46 | 406 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felix Jones | 15 | 109 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Austin | 9 | 12 | 166 | 1 |
| Roy Williams | 6 | 8 | 87 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 5 | 9 | 84 | 1 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 2 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Felix Jones | 4 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
4.85%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.9%
Expected total
46.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+3.68