2010 · Week 5

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

34·27

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Cowboys Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -6.5

Total

43.5

Model margin

+3.7est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCowboys
  • -0.017EPA / play-0.002
  • 40.0%Success rate43.2%
  • +0.083EPA / dropback+0.048
  • -0.153EPA / rush-0.085
  • 9.4%Explosive rate9.1%
  • -0.87CPOE+2.25
  • 34.8%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 61.2%Red-zone TD rate65.7%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.67
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17DAL @ TEN27–13DAL
2018 · W9TEN @ DAL28–14TEN
2014 · W2DAL @ TEN26–10DAL
2006 · W4DAL @ TEN45–14DAL
2002 · W2TEN @ DAL13–21DAL
2000 · W17DAL @ TEN0–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DAL
TENQ1 15:00832Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 12:40733Punt7–0
TENQ1 10:03962Field goal10–0
DALQ1 5:22739Field goal10–3
TENQ1 0:57872Touchdown17–3
DALQ2 12:281131Punt17–3
TENQ2 5:36513Punt17–3
DALQ2 2:48880Touchdown17–10
TENQ2 1:06626End of half17–10
DALQ3 15:00375Touchdown17–17
TENQ3 13:3434Punt17–17
DALQ3 12:45539Missed field goal17–17
TENQ3 9:5337Punt17–17
DALQ3 8:281170Turnover17–17
TENQ3 2:12459Field goal20–17
DALQ3 0:19856Field goal20–20
TENQ4 10:14436Punt20–20
DALQ4 8:2024Turnover26–20
TENQ4 7:3011Touchdown27–20
DALQ4 7:26870Touchdown27–27
TENQ4 4:3035Touchdown34–27
DALQ4 3:28714Turnover on downs34–27
TENQ4 1:5436Punt34–27
DALQ4 0:4710Turnover34–27
TENQ4 0:3800End of half34–27

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young12/2517320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson191316.92
Vince Young4225.50
Javon Ringer451.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Britt46861
Damian Williams23300
Nate Washington17241
Bo Scaife25120
Craig Stevens11110
Javon Ringer1190
Chris Johnson1110

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo31/4640633

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Felix Jones151097.30
Marion Barber6193.20
Tony Romo199.00
Miles Austin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Miles Austin9121661
Roy Williams68871
Jason Witten59841
Dez Bryant36220
Martellus Bennett25190
Felix Jones44170
Sam Hurd22110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

4.85%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.9%

Expected total

46.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.34
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.70
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+3.68