2018 · Week 9

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Marcus Mariota

28·14

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

Total

40

Model margin

+2.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCowboys
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.009
  • 42.6%Success rate43.9%
  • +0.023EPA / dropback+0.051
  • -0.094EPA / rush-0.060
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.50CPOE+1.03
  • 40.0%Third-down rate41.3%
  • 53.8%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.83Points / drive1.93
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17DAL @ TEN27–13DAL
2014 · W2DAL @ TEN26–10DAL
2010 · W5TEN @ DAL34–27TEN
2006 · W4DAL @ TEN45–14DAL
2002 · W2TEN @ DAL13–21DAL
2000 · W17DAL @ TEN0–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DAL
DALQ1 15:00950Missed field goal0–0
TENQ1 10:316-4Turnover0–0
DALQ1 8:08415Touchdown0–7
TENQ1 6:12315Turnover0–7
DALQ1 5:01335Turnover0–7
TENQ1 3:301585Touchdown7–7
DALQ2 9:35411Punt7–7
TENQ2 7:49769Touchdown14–7
DALQ2 4:111078Touchdown14–14
TENQ2 0:391-9End of half14–14
TENQ3 15:00521Punt14–14
DALQ3 12:39737Turnover14–14
TENQ3 9:02740Touchdown21–14
DALQ3 5:44514Punt21–14
TENQ3 2:201351Missed field goal21–14
DALQ4 10:583-10Punt21–14
TENQ4 8:46864Touchdown28–14
DALQ4 4:381467Turnover on downs28–14
TENQ4 1:31312End of half28–14

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota21/2924020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dion Lewis19623.30
Marcus Mariota10323.21
Derrick Henry6274.51
Corey Davis144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dion Lewis44601
Corey Davis610560
Darius Jennings11360
Jonnu Smith22331
Taywan Taylor22240
Cameron Batson23210
Luke Stocker1250
Derrick Henry2250
Tajae Sharpe1100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott21/3124321
Cole Beasley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ezekiel Elliott17613.60
Dak Prescott2115.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amari Cooper58581
Ezekiel Elliott45510
Michael Gallup36510
Allen Hurns11231
Deonte Thompson22210
Cole Beasley34160
Blake Jarwin22150
Rod Smith1280
Dak Prescott0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

43.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.08