Closing spread
DAL -4.5
Total
40
Model margin
+2.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.009
- 42.6%Success rate43.9%
- +0.023EPA / dropback+0.051
- -0.094EPA / rush-0.060
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.50CPOE+1.03
- 40.0%Third-down rate41.3%
- 53.8%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.83Points / drive1.93
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 21/29 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 19 | 62 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Marcus Mariota | 10 | 32 | 3.2 | 1 |
| Derrick Henry | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dion Lewis | 4 | 4 | 60 | 1 |
| Corey Davis | 6 | 10 | 56 | 0 |
| Darius Jennings | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 2 | 33 | 1 |
| Taywan Taylor | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| Cameron Batson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Derrick Henry | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Tajae Sharpe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 21/31 | 243 | 2 | 1 |
| Cole Beasley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezekiel Elliott | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amari Cooper | 5 | 8 | 58 | 1 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 4 | 5 | 51 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1 |
| Deonte Thompson | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Blake Jarwin | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Rod Smith | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Dak Prescott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.34
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.08