2014 · Week 2

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

26·10

Titans

Tennessee

QB Jake Locker

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

TEN -3

Total

49.5

Model margin

-4.6est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

6.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTitans
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.122
  • 46.6%Success rate39.5%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback-0.086
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.190
  • 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +5.68CPOE-2.82
  • 47.6%Third-down rate29.7%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.18
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17DAL @ TEN27–13DAL
2018 · W9TEN @ DAL28–14TEN
2010 · W5TEN @ DAL34–27TEN
2006 · W4DAL @ TEN45–14DAL
2002 · W2TEN @ DAL13–21DAL
2000 · W17DAL @ TEN0–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TEN
DALQ1 15:00718Punt0–0
TENQ1 10:5738Punt0–0
DALQ1 9:33221Turnover0–0
TENQ1 8:4034Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:121145Field goal3–0
TENQ1 0:1337Turnover3–0
DALQ2 14:43440Touchdown10–0
TENQ2 12:54420Punt10–0
DALQ2 11:22736Punt10–0
TENQ2 6:38521Punt10–0
DALQ2 3:56734Field goal13–0
TENQ2 1:0238Punt13–0
DALQ2 0:23315Field goal16–0
TENQ2 0:0400End of half16–0
TENQ3 15:00863Field goal16–3
DALQ3 10:5730Punt16–3
TENQ3 9:10368Touchdown16–10
DALQ3 7:451481Touchdown23–10
TENQ3 2:09732Turnover23–10
DALQ4 14:231133Field goal26–10
TENQ4 8:15974Turnover on downs26–10
DALQ4 6:221245Punt26–10
TENQ4 0:2319End of half26–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo19/2917610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray291675.81
Lance Dunbar11272.50
Joseph Randle3268.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant10141031
Jason Witten47320
Terrance Williams24200
Cole Beasley11100
DeMarco Murray1260
Gavin Escobar1150

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jake Locker18/3423412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Shonn Greene5408.00
Dexter McCluster4307.50
Jake Locker294.50
Bishop Sankey231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Delanie Walker10141421
Kendall Wright35310
Justin Hunter26260
Derek Hagan11250
Dexter McCluster1190
Nate Washington1610
Taylor Thompson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.2%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.5%3.6%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

6.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

36.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.88
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-4.62