Closing spread
TEN -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
-4.6est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.122
- 46.6%Success rate39.5%
- +0.286EPA / dropback-0.086
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.190
- 10.8%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.68CPOE-2.82
- 47.6%Third-down rate29.7%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate50.7%
- 2.36Points / drive1.18
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 19/29 | 176 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 29 | 167 | 5.8 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 11 | 27 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 10 | 14 | 103 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Locker | 18/34 | 234 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shonn Greene | 5 | 40 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 30 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Jake Locker | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delanie Walker | 10 | 14 | 142 | 1 |
| Kendall Wright | 3 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Dexter McCluster | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
| Taylor Thompson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
6.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
36.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.88
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-4.62