2002 · Week 2

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Steve McNair

13·21

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Quincy Carter

Texas Stadium · outdoors · astroturf · 81°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

TEN -3.5

Total

37.5

Model margin

+2.5est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapCowboys
  • +0.043EPA / play-0.190
  • 44.9%Success rate37.2%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.193
  • -0.095EPA / rush-0.185
  • 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
  • 43.7%Third-down rate23.8%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
  • 1.58Points / drive0.79
  • 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
  • -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.059

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17DAL @ TEN27–13DAL
2018 · W9TEN @ DAL28–14TEN
2014 · W2DAL @ TEN26–10DAL
2010 · W5TEN @ DAL34–27TEN
2006 · W4DAL @ TEN45–14DAL
2000 · W17DAL @ TEN0–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–DAL
TENQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
DALQ1 13:2233Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:273-5Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:1238Punt0–0
TENQ1 8:2713100Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 0:0000Touchdown7–0
DALQ2 15:00676Touchdown7–7
TENQ2 12:001255Field goal10–7
DALQ2 5:311048Punt10–7
TENQ2 1:062-2End of half10–7
DALQ3 15:00730Punt10–7
TENQ3 11:10733Punt10–7
DALQ3 7:0839Punt10–7
TENQ3 5:07429Opp touchdown10–14
DALQ3 3:1000Opp touchdown10–14
TENQ3 3:10740Punt10–14
DALQ4 14:47795Touchdown10–21
TENQ4 11:25513Punt10–21
DALQ4 9:2933Punt10–21
TENQ4 7:54728Field goal13–21
DALQ4 5:18523Punt13–21
TENQ4 3:21516Punt13–21
DALQ4 2:1535Punt13–21
TENQ4 1:48518Turnover on downs13–21
DALQ4 0:582-3End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair20/3822611
Neil O'Donnell2/41600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie George19653.40
Steve McNair4235.80
Mike Green11212.00
Neil O'Donnell2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Derrick Mason7111180
Kevin Dyson47430
Frank Wycheck49241
Eddie George34210
Greg Comella22190
Justin McCareins13150
Mike Green13120
Drew Bennett1470

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Quincy Carter14/2424020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Emmitt Smith18593.30
Quincy Carter471.80
Troy Hambrick231.50
Michael Wiley2-2-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Joey Galloway59881
Antonio Bryant34870
Ken-Yon Rambo35370
Tony McGee11171
Emmitt Smith1240
Darnay Scott0100
James Whalen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -3.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

6.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.8%

Expected total

41.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment+5.06
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.51