Closing spread
TEN -3.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.043EPA / play-0.190
- 44.9%Success rate37.2%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.193
- -0.095EPA / rush-0.185
- 6.9%Explosive rate9.2%
- 43.7%Third-down rate23.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate57.0%
- 1.58Points / drive0.79
- 2.3%Turnover rate3.3%
- -0.038EPA / play allowed-0.059
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. DAL are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 20/38 | 226 | 1 | 1 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2/4 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 65 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 7 | 11 | 118 | 0 |
| Kevin Dyson | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Frank Wycheck | 4 | 9 | 24 | 1 |
| Eddie George | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Greg Comella | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Justin McCareins | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Mike Green | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Drew Bennett | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quincy Carter | 14/24 | 240 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmitt Smith | 18 | 59 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Quincy Carter | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Troy Hambrick | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joey Galloway | 5 | 9 | 88 | 1 |
| Antonio Bryant | 3 | 4 | 87 | 0 |
| Ken-Yon Rambo | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Tony McGee | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| Emmitt Smith | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Darnay Scott | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Whalen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
6.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
41.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+5.06
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.51