Closing spread
DAL -14
Total
41
Model margin
-3.4est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
2.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.031EPA / play-0.066
- 45.2%Success rate41.2%
- +0.082EPA / dropback-0.034
- -0.031EPA / rush-0.104
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- -1.95CPOE-0.94
- 46.2%Third-down rate37.1%
- 71.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
- 2.26Points / drive1.46
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott | 29/41 | 282 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Davis | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 19 | 37 | 1.9 | 1 |
| Dak Prescott | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CeeDee Lamb | 11 | 14 | 100 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 7 | 10 | 56 | 2 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 4 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Michael Gallup | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Malik Davis | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Noah Brown | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| Jake Ferguson | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Peyton Hendershot | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua Dobbs | 20/39 | 232 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassan Haskins | 12 | 40 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 4 | 26 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Treylon Burks | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Joshua Dobbs | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Treylon Burks | 4 | 8 | 66 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 5 | 9 | 39 | 1 |
| Racey McMath | 1 | 2 | 39 | 0 |
| Julius Chestnut | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Chig Okonkwo | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Hassan Haskins | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonathan Ward | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.77%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
40.1%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.67
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-3.37