2022 · Week 17

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Dak Prescott

27·13

Titans

Tennessee

QB Joshua Dobbs

Nissan Stadium · outdoors · grass · 56°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

DAL -14

Total

41

Model margin

-3.4est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

2.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Titans

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapTitans
  • +0.031EPA / play-0.066
  • 45.2%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.082EPA / dropback-0.034
  • -0.031EPA / rush-0.104
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • -1.95CPOE-0.94
  • 46.2%Third-down rate37.1%
  • 71.3%Red-zone TD rate67.5%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.46
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W9TEN @ DAL28–14TEN
2014 · W2DAL @ TEN26–10DAL
2010 · W5TEN @ DAL34–27TEN
2006 · W4DAL @ TEN45–14DAL
2002 · W2TEN @ DAL13–21DAL
2000 · W17DAL @ TEN0–31TEN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–TEN
DALQ1 15:00524Punt0–0
TENQ1 12:34526Punt0–0
DALQ1 10:061241Touchdown7–0
TENQ1 4:3632Punt7–0
DALQ1 3:37747Field goal10–0
TENQ2 14:56944Turnover10–0
DALQ2 9:55523Turnover10–0
TENQ2 8:0335Punt10–0
DALQ2 6:36840Turnover10–0
TENQ2 3:33745Field goal10–3
DALQ2 1:04831Turnover10–3
TENQ2 0:13130Field goal10–6
TENQ3 15:0034Punt10–6
DALQ3 13:231339Touchdown17–6
TENQ3 8:481471Touchdown17–13
DALQ3 2:041060Touchdown24–13
TENQ4 11:58635Punt24–13
DALQ4 9:50653Field goal27–13
TENQ4 6:2424Turnover27–13
DALQ4 5:5730Punt27–13
TENQ4 4:55825Turnover on downs27–13
DALQ4 3:4433Punt27–13
TENQ4 1:50426End of half27–13

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Dak Prescott29/4128222

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Malik Davis10393.90
Ezekiel Elliott19371.91
Dak Prescott3113.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
CeeDee Lamb11141000
Dalton Schultz710562
T.Y. Hilton45500
Michael Gallup34390
Malik Davis22230
Noah Brown1470
Jake Ferguson1170
Peyton Hendershot0100

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Joshua Dobbs20/3923211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Hassan Haskins12403.30
Jonathan Ward4266.50
Treylon Burks12020.00
Joshua Dobbs3124.00
Julius Chestnut4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Treylon Burks48660
Robert Woods59391
Racey McMath12390
Julius Chestnut11330
Chig Okonkwo34240
Hassan Haskins23130
Austin Hooper1660
Geoff Swaim1140
Jonathan Ward1140
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine1340

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -142.8%3.1%4.8%3.1%7.5%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.77%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

40.1%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.41
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.67
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-3.37