Closing spread
TEN -13.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+11.3est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Titans
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play-0.033
- 41.5%Success rate39.2%
- -0.085EPA / dropback+0.085
- -0.061EPA / rush-0.158
- 8.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- 36.8%Third-down rate42.4%
- 46.9%Red-zone TD rate46.5%
- 1.35Points / drive1.28
- 3.7%Turnover rate2.7%
- +0.022EPA / play allowed-0.194
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 43.3 points. TEN are 3-3-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Wright | 5/20 | 35 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Hambrick | 6 | 28 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 12 | 20 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Wright | 3 | 9 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James McKnight | 2 | 9 | 30 | 0 |
| Jackie Harris | 2 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| Wane McGarity | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Emmitt Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jason Tucker | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Wiley | 1 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve McNair | 17/23 | 188 | 1 | 2 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3/10 | 28 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie George | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Rodney Thomas | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Steve McNair | 5 | 30 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Neil O'Donnell | 3 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Mason | 6 | 8 | 95 | 1 |
| Frank Wycheck | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Yancey Thigpen | 2 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Eddie George | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Chris Sanders | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Erron Kinney | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Rodney Thomas | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Carl Pickens | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.62%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
77.3%
Expected total
41.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.42
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+11.35