2006 · Week 4
Final / OT
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 3mph
Closing spread
JAX -2.5
Total
33.5
Model margin
-1.4est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.006
- 42.5%Success rate40.9%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.034
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.052
- 10.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- +0.26CPOE-2.46
- 39.0%Third-down rate38.5%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.59Points / drive1.58
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. WAS are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Leftwich | 21/35 | 289 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 16 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 18/30 | 329 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 27 | 112 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Ladell Betts | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.3%
Expected total
46.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.45
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.50
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.39