2010 · Week 16
Final / OT
EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 18mph
Closing spread
JAX -7
Total
45.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.079EPA / play+0.019
- 40.8%Success rate44.9%
- -0.045EPA / dropback+0.010
- -0.148EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.3%Explosive rate10.6%
- -4.10CPOE+1.85
- 29.2%Third-down rate39.5%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.86
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rex Grossman | 19/39 | 182 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Torain | 20 | 65 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Keiland Williams | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rex Grossman | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santana Moss | 5 | 9 | 85 | 0 |
| Chris Cooley | 5 | 11 | 48 | 0 |
| Anthony Armstrong | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Roydell Williams | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Fred Davis | 2 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Terrence Austin | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Ryan Torain | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Keiland Williams | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 22/38 | 299 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 15 | 32 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Mike Thomas | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Deji Karim | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Thomas | 6 | 9 | 96 | 1 |
| Jason Hill | 4 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 3 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Sims-Walker | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 4 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Brock Bolen | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Zach Potter | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.80%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.6%
Expected total
46.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.22
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.17