2010 · Week 16

Final / OT

Commanders

Washington

QB Rex Grossman

20·17

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 38°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

JAX -7

Total

45.5

Model margin

+3.2est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.079EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.8%Success rate44.9%
  • -0.045EPA / dropback+0.010
  • -0.148EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.3%Explosive rate10.6%
  • -4.10CPOE+1.85
  • 29.2%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.86
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1JAX @ WAS22–28WAS
2018 · W15WAS @ JAX16–13WAS
2014 · W2JAX @ WAS10–41WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX
2000 · W8WAS @ JAX35–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–JAX
WASQ1 15:00414Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 13:41411Turnover3–0
WASQ1 11:31713Touchdown10–0
JAXQ1 9:0733Punt10–0
WASQ1 7:2735Punt10–0
JAXQ1 5:48748Missed field goal10–0
WASQ1 1:08314Punt10–0
JAXQ2 14:131194Touchdown10–7
WASQ2 8:183-1Punt10–7
JAXQ2 7:24635Punt10–7
WASQ2 4:36663Turnover10–7
JAXQ2 2:25410Punt10–7
WASQ2 0:5430Punt10–7
JAXQ2 0:281-13End of half10–7
JAXQ3 15:003-3Punt10–7
WASQ3 13:5835Punt10–7
JAXQ3 12:2043Punt10–7
WASQ3 10:19319Punt10–7
JAXQ3 8:50762Field goal10–10
WASQ3 4:571468Touchdown17–10
JAXQ4 12:07728Punt17–10
WASQ4 9:03520Punt17–10
JAXQ4 6:0730Punt17–10
WASQ4 5:37314Punt17–10
JAXQ4 4:00442Touchdown17–17
WASQ4 2:44716Punt17–17
JAXQ4 0:21210End of half17–17
JAXOT36Turnover17–17
WASOT21Field goal20–17

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Rex Grossman19/3918211

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Torain20653.31
Keiland Williams284.00
Rex Grossman155.00
Mike Sellers111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Santana Moss59850
Chris Cooley511480
Anthony Armstrong23150
Roydell Williams12100
Fred Davis24101
Terrence Austin1260
Ryan Torain2340
Keiland Williams1340
Mike Sellers0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard22/3829912

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Garrard6396.51
Rashad Jennings15322.10
Mike Thomas144.00
Deji Karim133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Thomas69961
Jason Hill49770
Marcedes Lewis37370
Mike Sims-Walker11310
Rashad Jennings44290
Brock Bolen13150
Zach Potter23140
Zach Miller0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.80%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.6%

Expected total

46.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.22
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.17