2022 · Week 1
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
WAS -3
Total
43.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.066
- 46.6%Success rate40.9%
- +0.137EPA / dropback-0.045
- -0.100EPA / rush-0.092
- 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
- +1.07CPOE-1.41
- 42.0%Third-down rate34.9%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 2.07Points / drive1.48
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. WAS are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lawrence | 24/42 | 275 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Robinson | 11 | 66 | 6.0 | 1 |
| Travis Etienne | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trevor Lawrence | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 6 | 12 | 117 | 0 |
| Zay Jones | 6 | 9 | 65 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 4 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Travis Etienne | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Jamal Agnew | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| James Robinson | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 27/41 | 313 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 14 | 58 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | -10 | -10.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Gibson | 7 | 8 | 72 | 0 |
| Terry McLaurin | 2 | 4 | 58 | 1 |
| Curtis Samuel | 8 | 11 | 55 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 3 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 3 | 5 | 40 | 2 |
| Armani Rogers | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0 |
| J.D. McKissic | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cam Sims | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| John Bates | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dax Milne | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.7%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.15