2022 · Week 1

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Trevor Lawrence

22·28

Commanders

Washington

QB Carson Wentz

FedExField · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

WAS -3

Total

43.5

Model margin

-0.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

7.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCommanders
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.066
  • 46.6%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.137EPA / dropback-0.045
  • -0.100EPA / rush-0.092
  • 9.3%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +1.07CPOE-1.41
  • 42.0%Third-down rate34.9%
  • 59.3%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
  • 2.07Points / drive1.48
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. WAS are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W15WAS @ JAX16–13WAS
2014 · W2JAX @ WAS10–41WAS
2010 · W16WAS @ JAX20–17WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX
2000 · W8WAS @ JAX35–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–WAS
JAXQ1 15:00860Field goal3–0
WASQ1 11:57874Touchdown3–7
JAXQ1 7:3668Punt3–7
WASQ1 4:181554Touchdown3–14
JAXQ2 11:4735Punt3–14
WASQ2 10:4233Punt3–14
JAXQ2 9:071147Turnover on downs3–14
WASQ2 4:59858Turnover3–14
JAXQ2 1:22952Missed field goal3–14
WASQ2 0:1600End of half3–14
WASQ3 15:0057Punt3–14
JAXQ3 11:58680Touchdown9–14
WASQ3 8:50612Punt9–14
JAXQ3 6:451150Field goal12–14
WASQ3 1:1659Turnover12–14
JAXQ4 14:19531Field goal15–14
WASQ4 12:0410Turnover21–14
JAXQ4 11:52111Touchdown22–14
WASQ4 11:45478Touchdown22–20
JAXQ4 9:36427Punt22–20
WASQ4 6:481590Touchdown22–28
JAXQ4 1:46512Turnover22–28
WASQ4 1:1027End of half22–28

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Trevor Lawrence24/4227511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Robinson11666.01
Travis Etienne44711.80
Jamal Agnew166.00
Trevor Lawrence242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Christian Kirk6121170
Zay Jones69650
Marvin Jones46380
Evan Engram44280
Travis Etienne24180
Jamal Agnew1160
James Robinson1231

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz27/4131342

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Antonio Gibson14584.10
Curtis Samuel4174.30
Carson Wentz6122.00
J.D. McKissic382.70
Jahan Dotson1-10-10.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Gibson78720
Terry McLaurin24581
Curtis Samuel811551
Logan Thomas36450
Jahan Dotson35402
Armani Rogers11230
J.D. McKissic33200
Cam Sims0100
John Bates0100
Dax Milne0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

7.34%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.7%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.85
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.15