2014 · Week 2

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Chad Henne

10·41

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

WAS -5

Total

43

Model margin

+0.2est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jaguars

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapCommanders
  • -0.161EPA / play-0.052
  • 37.6%Success rate41.7%
  • -0.184EPA / dropback-0.031
  • -0.114EPA / rush-0.089
  • 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -7.00CPOE+1.13
  • 32.0%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 0.97Points / drive1.39
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. WAS are 6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1JAX @ WAS22–28WAS
2018 · W15WAS @ JAX16–13WAS
2010 · W16WAS @ JAX20–17WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX
2000 · W8WAS @ JAX35–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultJAX–WAS
WASQ1 15:0044Punt0–0
JAXQ1 12:503-11Punt0–0
WASQ1 11:47776Touchdown0–7
JAXQ1 8:1238Punt0–7
WASQ1 6:5459Punt0–7
JAXQ1 4:1233Punt0–7
WASQ1 2:49766Touchdown0–14
JAXQ2 14:1831Punt0–14
WASQ2 12:3810102Touchdown0–21
JAXQ2 7:28615Punt0–21
WASQ2 5:2349Punt0–21
JAXQ2 3:15571Touchdown7–21
WASQ2 1:401142Turnover on downs7–21
JAXQ3 15:003-5Punt7–21
WASQ3 12:51933Field goal7–24
JAXQ3 8:303-12Punt7–24
WASQ3 6:5438Punt7–24
JAXQ3 5:4165Punt7–24
WASQ3 3:521165Touchdown7–31
JAXQ4 14:1233Turnover7–31
WASQ4 13:125-5Field goal7–34
JAXQ4 10:40868Field goal10–34
WASQ4 6:50841Touchdown10–41
JAXQ4 1:5242Turnover on downs10–41
WASQ4 0:2100End of half10–41

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Chad Henne14/2819311

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chad Henne3175.70
Toby Gerhart781.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson46750
Marcedes Lewis23711
Denard Robinson22140
Allen Hurns26130
Marqise Lee24110
Toby Gerhart2290
Mickey Shuler0100
Mike Brown0400

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins22/3325020
Robert Griffin III2/33800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris22853.92
Silas Redd8415.11
Roy Helu8253.10
Robert Griffin III22211.00
Andre Roberts11919.00
Kirk Cousins1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Niles Paul811991
Andre Roberts45570
Ryan Grant58570
DeSean Jackson12190
Pierre Garcon14120
Roy Helu22110
Aldrick Robinson1260

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +52.7%4.4%2.9%7.3%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

1.86%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.7%

Expected total

43.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.51
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.23