2014 · Week 2
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 65°F · wind 6mph
Closing spread
WAS -5
Total
43
Model margin
+0.2est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.161EPA / play-0.052
- 37.6%Success rate41.7%
- -0.184EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.114EPA / rush-0.089
- 7.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- -7.00CPOE+1.13
- 32.0%Third-down rate31.3%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 0.97Points / drive1.39
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. WAS are 6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 14/28 | 193 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Henne | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 7 | 8 | 1.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 4 | 6 | 75 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 71 | 1 |
| Denard Robinson | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 2 | 6 | 13 | 0 |
| Marqise Lee | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Mickey Shuler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Brown | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 22/33 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2/3 | 38 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 22 | 85 | 3.9 | 2 |
| Silas Redd | 8 | 41 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Roy Helu | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niles Paul | 8 | 11 | 99 | 1 |
| Andre Roberts | 4 | 5 | 57 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 5 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
1.86%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.75
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.51
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.23