2000 · Week 8
Final
Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 15mph
Closing spread
WAS -4
Total
36
Model margin
+3.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.027EPA / play+0.010
- 41.1%Success rate41.4%
- +0.058EPA / dropback+0.066
- -0.148EPA / rush-0.071
- 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
- 39.0%Third-down rate42.8%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
- 1.30Points / drive1.87
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.022
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Johnson | 16/24 | 269 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Davis | 24 | 114 | 4.8 | 2 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Connell | 7 | 10 | 211 | 3 |
| Stephen Alexander | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| James Thrash | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Skip Hicks | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 21/42 | 271 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 22 | 124 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 2 | 12 | 6.0 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Shyrone Stith | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Brady | 8 | 13 | 111 | 0 |
| Keenan McCardell | 3 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| R.Jay Soward | 2 | 6 | 40 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 4 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Alvis Whitted | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Reggie Barlow | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Anthony Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.22%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.4%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.49