2000 · Week 8

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Brad Johnson

35·16

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Mark Brunell

Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

WAS -4

Total

36

Model margin

+3.5est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.027EPA / play+0.010
  • 41.1%Success rate41.4%
  • +0.058EPA / dropback+0.066
  • -0.148EPA / rush-0.071
  • 8.1%Explosive rate8.0%
  • 39.0%Third-down rate42.8%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate55.4%
  • 1.30Points / drive1.87
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.093EPA / play allowed-0.022

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1JAX @ WAS22–28WAS
2018 · W15WAS @ JAX16–13WAS
2014 · W2JAX @ WAS10–41WAS
2010 · W16WAS @ JAX20–17WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–JAX
JAXQ1 15:00625Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:07538Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 9:401571Field goal7–3
WASQ1 3:22425Punt7–3
JAXQ1 1:11980Touchdown7–10
WASQ2 12:1439Punt7–10
WASQ2 10:41212Touchdown14–10
JAXQ2 9:5367Punt14–10
WASQ2 6:23251Touchdown21–10
JAXQ2 5:39751Field goal21–13
WASQ2 2:15211Turnover21–13
JAXQ2 1:50723Field goal21–16
WASQ2 0:31416End of half21–16
WASQ3 15:00625Punt21–16
JAXQ3 11:3233Punt27–16
WASQ3 10:34177Touchdown28–16
JAXQ3 10:2239Punt28–16
WASQ3 8:21743Turnover28–16
JAXQ3 4:41833Turnover28–16
WASQ3 1:2039Punt28–16
JAXQ4 14:49411Punt28–16
WASQ4 12:35416Punt28–16
JAXQ4 9:4617Turnover28–16
WASQ4 9:401165Touchdown35–16
JAXQ4 4:323-1Punt35–16
WASQ4 3:2532Punt35–16
JAXQ4 1:10466End of half35–16

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brad Johnson16/2426931

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stephen Davis241144.82
James Thrash2136.50
Skip Hicks320.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Connell7102113
Stephen Alexander34170
James Thrash24160
Skip Hicks1180

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Brunell21/4227112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor221245.60
Mark Brunell2126.00
R.Jay Soward188.00
Shyrone Stith122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Brady8131110
Keenan McCardell39510
R.Jay Soward26401
Fred Taylor46330
Jimmy Smith23170
Alvis Whitted11110
Reggie Barlow0200
Anthony Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.22%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.4%

Expected total

42.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.01
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.49