2018 · Week 15

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Josh Johnson

16·13

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Cody Kessler

TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

JAX -7.5

Total

36

Model margin

+1.9est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapJaguars
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.130
  • 42.3%Success rate40.4%
  • -0.059EPA / dropback-0.101
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.184
  • 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -3.01CPOE-4.63
  • 36.2%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 51.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
  • 1.44Points / drive1.26
  • 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

WAS lead 6–1 since 1999

WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W1JAX @ WAS22–28WAS
2014 · W2JAX @ WAS10–41WAS
2010 · W16WAS @ JAX20–17WAS
2006 · W4JAX @ WAS30–36WAS
2002 · W10WAS @ JAX7–26JAX
2000 · W8WAS @ JAX35–16WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–JAX
JAXQ1 15:0059Turnover0–0
WASQ1 12:533-6Punt0–0
JAXQ1 10:4369Punt0–0
WASQ1 6:52938Field goal3–0
JAXQ1 1:503-1Punt3–0
WASQ2 14:5041Punt3–0
JAXQ2 12:42416Punt3–0
WASQ2 11:02414Punt3–0
JAXQ2 8:421036Field goal3–3
WASQ2 3:22415Punt3–3
JAXQ2 1:4638Punt3–3
WASQ2 0:43412Opp touchdown3–10
WASQ2 0:0400End of half3–10
WASQ3 15:001740Field goal6–10
JAXQ3 7:3255Punt6–10
WASQ3 5:23627Punt6–10
JAXQ3 1:44970Field goal6–13
WASQ4 11:161068Touchdown13–13
JAXQ4 5:47740Turnover13–13
WASQ4 2:31638Field goal16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Josh Johnson16/2515110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson19512.70
Josh Johnson9495.40
Chris Thompson591.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder44460
Adrian Peterson23200
Jeremy Sprinkle33191
Byron Marshall11170
Vernon Davis23160
Michael Floyd23160
Maurice Harris12130
Chris Thompson1240
Josh Doctson0200

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cody Kessler9/175701

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cody Kessler66811.30
Leonard Fournette11464.20
Dave Williams5326.40
Dede Westbrook12020.00
T.J. Yeldon362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dede Westbrook35210
Leonard Fournette34180
James O'Shaughnessy1170
Blake Bell1160
T.J. Yeldon1250
Donte Moncrief0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

41.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.70
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+1.94