2018 · Week 15
Final
TIAA Bank Stadium · outdoors · grass · 64°F · wind 12mph
Closing spread
JAX -7.5
Total
36
Model margin
+1.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.130
- 42.3%Success rate40.4%
- -0.059EPA / dropback-0.101
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.184
- 8.3%Explosive rate7.4%
- -3.01CPOE-4.63
- 36.2%Third-down rate40.5%
- 51.6%Red-zone TD rate46.2%
- 1.44Points / drive1.26
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Johnson | 16/25 | 151 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 51 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Josh Johnson | 9 | 49 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 4 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Jeremy Sprinkle | 3 | 3 | 19 | 1 |
| Byron Marshall | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Maurice Harris | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Josh Doctson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 9/17 | 57 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Kessler | 6 | 68 | 11.3 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 11 | 46 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Dave Williams | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Dede Westbrook | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dede Westbrook | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Leonard Fournette | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| James O'Shaughnessy | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| T.J. Yeldon | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Donte Moncrief | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
41.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.70
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+1.94