2002 · Week 10
Final
Alltel Stadium · outdoors · grass · 82°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
JAX -1.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-2.4est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.056EPA / play-0.269
- 41.7%Success rate40.3%
- -0.037EPA / dropback-0.158
- -0.083EPA / rush-0.424
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.6%
- 39.7%Third-down rate33.9%
- 57.0%Red-zone TD rate29.3%
- 1.22Points / drive0.22
- 3.3%Turnover rate1.4%
- -0.082EPA / play allowed+0.014
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
WAS lead 6–1 since 1999
WAS have won 5 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. JAX are 1-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shane Matthews | 27/50 | 256 | 1 | 2 |
| Mark Brunell | 19/29 | 194 | 0 | 0 |
| Patrick Ramsey | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 21 | 82 | 3.9 | 1 |
| Stacey Mack | 7 | 56 | 8.0 | 1 |
| Kenny Watson | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 4 | 4 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Shane Matthews | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rod Gardner | 7 | 13 | 100 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 3 | 3 | 69 | 0 |
| Jimmy Smith | 5 | 7 | 68 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 5 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 9 | 27 | 0 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrius Thompson | 3 | 8 | 24 | 0 |
| Chris Doering | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| Walter Rasby | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Zeron Flemister | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Darnerien McCants | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Willie Jackson | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Jacquez Green | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kevin Lockett | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.7%
Expected total
40.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.95
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.38