Closing spread
SF -3
Total
39
Model margin
+0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 7:26 | 11 | 74 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:40 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 14:52 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 13:59 | 9 | 60 | Turnover on downs | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 8:50 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 7:06 | 9 | 55 | Turnover on downs | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 2:00 | 6 | 86 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| SF | Q2 0:51 | 1 | 7 | End of half | 13–7 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 13–7 |
| SF | Q3 13:22 | 3 | 9 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| LV | Q3 12:25 | 8 | 50 | Turnover | 13–14 |
| SF | Q3 8:11 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–21 |
| LV | Q3 3:24 | 8 | 39 | Turnover | 13–21 |
| SF | Q4 14:11 | 5 | 27 | Field goal | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 10:42 | 1 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–31 |
| LV | Q4 10:30 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 13–31 |
| SF | Q4 10:19 | 1 | 0 | Missed field goal | 13–31 |
| SF | Q4 9:38 | 2 | -1 | Missed field goal | 13–31 |
| LV | Q4 8:03 | 4 | 61 | Touchdown | 20–31 |
| SF | Q4 6:23 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:49 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:31 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 2:14 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 20–34 |
| SF | Q4 2:03 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 20–34 |
| LV | Q4 0:21 | 2 | 20 | End of half | 20–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/19 | 165 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 27 | 134 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
7.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.