Closing spread
OAK -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutT.J. ClemmingsTKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDaryl WorleyCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableGareon ConleyCBFoot· Limited
- QuestionableKelechi OsemeleGKnee· Limited
- LimitedBruce IrvinDEPectoral
- LimitedDwayne HarrisWRShoulder
- LimitedGabe JacksonGPectoral
- LimitedJon FelicianoGRibs
- LimitedKolton MillerTKnee
- LimitedRodney HudsonCAnkle
49ers
- OutAntone ExumSConcussion· DNP
- OutJaquiski TarttSShoulder· DNP
- OutReuben FosterLBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableC.J. BeathardQBright Wrist· Limited
- QuestionableMatt BreidaRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionablePierre GarconWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRaheem MostertRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableRichard ShermanCBCalf· Limited
- QuestionableWeston RichburgCKnee· Limited
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 71 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 9:30 | 6 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 6:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:04 | 13 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 12:40 | 9 | 38 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 7:26 | 5 | 1 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 5:46 | 7 | 38 | Punt | 3–14 |
| SF | Q2 1:54 | 6 | 64 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LV | Q2 0:16 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 77 | Touchdown | 3–24 |
| LV | Q3 12:36 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–24 |
| SF | Q3 10:33 | 3 | 68 | Touchdown | 3–31 |
| LV | Q3 9:17 | 5 | 11 | Punt | 3–31 |
| SF | Q3 6:46 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 3–31 |
| LV | Q3 4:15 | 9 | 47 | Missed field goal | 3–31 |
| SF | Q4 13:26 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–31 |
| LV | Q4 11:45 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 3–31 |
| SF | Q4 9:31 | 7 | 17 | Field goal | 3–34 |
| LV | Q4 3:59 | 6 | 19 | Punt | 3–34 |
| SF | Q4 1:45 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 16/22 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 108 | 1 |
| Richie James | 2 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.