Closing spread
OAK -1.5
Total
44
Model margin
+0.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Mullens | 16/22 | 262 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raheem Mostert | 7 | 86 | 12.3 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 12 | 44 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Mullens | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 4 | 4 | 108 | 1 |
| Richie James | 2 | 3 | 60 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 3 | 5 | 56 | 1 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Ross Dwelley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 2 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.4%
Expected total
44.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.13
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.