Closing spread
SF -10
Total
41.5
Model margin
-5.1est.
LV perspective
Push chance
3.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.084EPA / play+0.009
- 46.1%Success rate43.4%
- +0.171EPA / dropback+0.057
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.071
- 10.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- -1.99CPOE-2.03
- 45.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
- 2.20Points / drive2.10
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. LV are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 22/35 | 284 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian McCaffrey | 19 | 121 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Jordan Mason | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Danny Gray | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Brock Purdy | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 9 | 12 | 101 | 1 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 6 | 9 | 72 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 2 | 3 | 46 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 4 | 8 | 23 | 1 |
Raiders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Stidham | 23/34 | 365 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Jacobs | 17 | 69 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Jarrett Stidham | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Brandon Bolden | 8 | 32 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 153 | 2 |
| Darren Waller | 3 | 5 | 72 | 1 |
| Foster Moreau | 3 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 3 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Josh Jacobs | 4 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 3 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.26%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
35.7%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.40
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-1.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-5.06