2022 · Week 17

Final / OT

49ers

San Francisco

QB Brock Purdy

37·34

Raiders

Las Vegas

QB Jarrett Stidham

Allegiant Stadium · dome · grass

Closing spread

SF -10

Total

41.5

Model margin

-5.1est.

LV perspective

Push chance

3.3%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Raiders

Win probability

  • Raiders
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Raiders wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapRaiders
  • +0.084EPA / play+0.009
  • 46.1%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.171EPA / dropback+0.057
  • -0.021EPA / rush-0.071
  • 10.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -1.99CPOE-2.03
  • 45.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate59.7%
  • 2.20Points / drive2.10
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 5–2 since 1999

SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. LV are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W9OAK @ SF3–34SF
2014 · W14SF @ OAK13–24RAIDERS
2010 · W6OAK @ SF9–17SF
2006 · W5OAK @ SF20–34SF
2002 · W9SF @ OAK23–20SF
2000 · W6OAK @ SF34–28RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LV
LVQ1 15:00670Touchdown0–7
SFQ1 11:40867Touchdown7–7
LVQ1 7:061064Field goal7–10
SFQ1 1:451550Touchdown14–10
LVQ2 9:381068Turnover on downs14–10
SFQ2 4:2948Punt14–10
LVQ2 2:33844Touchdown14–17
SFQ2 0:1000End of half14–17
SFQ3 15:0033Punt14–17
LVQ3 13:16670Touchdown14–24
SFQ3 10:22985Touchdown21–24
LVQ3 5:2239Punt21–24
SFQ3 4:02441Turnover21–24
LVQ3 2:24636Turnover21–24
SFQ4 14:46517Field goal24–24
LVQ4 12:34516Punt24–24
SFQ4 9:42659Field goal27–24
LVQ4 6:44641Field goal27–27
SFQ4 4:08575Touchdown34–27
LVQ4 2:17567Touchdown34–34
SFQ4 1:11652Missed field goal34–34
LVOT415Turnover34–34
SFOT00Field goal37–34

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brock Purdy22/3528421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Christian McCaffrey191216.41
Brandon Aiyuk11616.00
Jordan Mason2136.51
Danny Gray199.00
Tyrion Davis-Price155.00
Brock Purdy2-3-1.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk9121011
Christian McCaffrey69720
Jauan Jennings23460
Ray-Ray McCloud12420
George Kittle48231

Raiders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jarrett Stidham23/3436532

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Josh Jacobs17694.11
Jarrett Stidham7344.90
Brandon Bolden8324.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7111532
Darren Waller35721
Foster Moreau33550
Mack Hollins34400
Josh Jacobs45260
Hunter Renfrow34190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -103.0%3.3%4.9%3.2%7.5%6.4%

Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.26%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

35.7%

Expected total

44.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.40
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-5.06