Closing spread
SF -8
Total
40
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutAnthony DavisTConcussion· DNP
- OutGlenn DorseyDTForearm· Limited
- OutVance McDonaldTEBack· DNP
- QuestionableRaymond VentroneSGroin· DNP
- QuestionableTramaine BrockCBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableCarlos HydeRBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableChris CulliverCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableRay McDonaldDEFinger· Limited
- ProbableBrandon LloydWRQuadricep· Full
- ProbableBruce EllingtonWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableJoe StaleyTIllness· Full
- ProbableJustin SmithDEBack· Full
- ProbableMichael CrabtreeWRKnee· Full
- ProbableSteve JohnsonWRKnee· Full
Raiders
- OutBrian LeonhardtTEConcussion· DNP
- OutJonathan DowlingSBack· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableNeiko ThorpeCBHand· Limited
- QuestionableSio MooreLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableTarell BrownCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableLatavius MurrayRBConcussion· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:51 | 6 | 27 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 11:46 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LV | Q1 7:48 | 4 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SF | Q1 5:55 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:54 | 11 | 79 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 10:45 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 8:20 | 6 | 31 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 4:51 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:18 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SF | Q2 1:42 | 8 | 72 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:01 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q3 12:55 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LV | Q3 8:34 | 9 | 75 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| SF | Q3 4:09 | 3 | 12 | Punt | 13–17 |
| LV | Q3 2:02 | 11 | 85 | Touchdown | 13–24 |
| SF | Q4 10:39 | 13 | 46 | Missed field goal | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 5:03 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 13–24 |
| SF | Q4 3:22 | 3 | -5 | Turnover | 13–24 |
| LV | Q4 2:36 | 6 | 13 | Turnover on downs | 13–24 |
| SF | Q4 0:28 | 2 | -9 | End of half | 13–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 18/33 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 14 | 56 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.