Closing spread
SF -8
Total
40
Model margin
+2.8est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Raiders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 18/33 | 174 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 12 | 63 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 9 | 14 | 56 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 4 | 9 | 54 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
1.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.77
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.