Closing spread
SF -9
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
1.2%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 16/33 | 196 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 149 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 4 | -2 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 6 | 57 | 1 |
| Josh Morgan | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 7 | 35 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Nate Byham | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Dominique Zeigler | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.60
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.