Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 14:44 | 4 | 26 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:44 | 8 | 37 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:14 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 6:26 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 5:29 | 6 | 32 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 3:03 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:57 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SF | Q2 14:40 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 3–0 |
| LV | Q2 13:10 | 3 | 7 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SF | Q2 11:32 | 10 | 52 | Touchdown | 6–7 |
| LV | Q2 6:22 | 9 | 9 | Punt | 6–7 |
| SF | Q2 2:44 | 12 | 94 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:19 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 72 | Touchdown | 14–14 |
| SF | Q3 9:58 | 4 | 40 | Turnover | 14–14 |
| LV | Q3 7:35 | 5 | 79 | Touchdown | 21–14 |
| SF | Q3 4:50 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 21–14 |
| LV | Q3 3:17 | 9 | 54 | Touchdown | 28–14 |
| SF | Q4 14:48 | 9 | 96 | Touchdown | 28–21 |
| LV | Q4 9:51 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 28–21 |
| SF | Q4 9:22 | 3 | 13 | Touchdown | 28–28 |
| LV | Q4 8:38 | 8 | 12 | Missed field goal | 28–28 |
| SF | Q4 4:41 | 6 | 40 | Turnover on downs | 28–28 |
| LV | Q4 1:29 | 6 | 34 | Punt | 28–28 |
| SF | Q4 0:19 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 28–28 |
| LV | OT | 6 | 59 | Missed field goal | 28–28 |
| SF | OT | 9 | 64 | Missed field goal | 28–28 |
| LV | OT | 6 | 67 | Touchdown | 34–28 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 28/41 | 336 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 12 | 17 | 176 | 2 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 9 | 28 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.