Closing spread
OAK -4.5
Total
48.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. SF are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 28/41 | 336 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 24 | 109 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Terrell Owens | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Travis Jervey | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 12 | 17 | 176 | 2 |
| Jerry Rice | 5 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 2 | 36 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 5 | 9 | 28 | 1 |
| Greg Clark | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Terry Jackson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.33%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.99
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.