Closing spread
OAK -3
Total
49.5
Model margin
+1.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SF lead 5–2 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.1 points. OAK are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 13:26 | 8 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:43 | 7 | 17 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 8:13 | 11 | 72 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:08 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:01 | 3 | 16 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:34 | 11 | 50 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 8:55 | 9 | 68 | Missed field goal | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 5:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 3:22 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–10 |
| LV | Q2 1:49 | 11 | 63 | Field goal | 10–13 |
| SF | Q2 0:15 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–13 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Field goal | 13–13 |
| LV | Q3 10:22 | 7 | 35 | Punt | 13–13 |
| SF | Q3 6:46 | 16 | 69 | Touchdown | 20–13 |
| LV | Q4 12:57 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 20–20 |
| SF | Q4 6:28 | 12 | 45 | Missed field goal | 20–20 |
| SF | OT | 16 | 73 | Field goal | 23–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/36 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevan Barlow | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 10 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 18 | 36 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 12 | 14 | 191 | 0 |
| Tai Streets | 8 | 11 | 61 | 1 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.