Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:00 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:00 | 11 | 76 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| SF | Q1 2:45 | 8 | 50 | Field goal | 14–10 |
| LAC | Q2 14:44 | 5 | 77 | Touchdown | 21–10 |
| SF | Q2 11:57 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 21–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:37 | 8 | 21 | Touchdown | 28–10 |
| SF | Q2 6:20 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 28–17 |
| LAC | Q2 3:32 | 2 | 0 | Safety | 28–19 |
| SF | Q2 3:12 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 28–19 |
| LAC | Q2 2:59 | 9 | 35 | Touchdown | 35–19 |
| SF | Q2 0:33 | 1 | 4 | End of half | 35–19 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 35–19 |
| LAC | Q3 14:09 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 38–19 |
| SF | Q3 9:09 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 38–19 |
| LAC | Q3 5:28 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 38–19 |
| SF | Q3 3:48 | 5 | 27 | Punt | 38–19 |
| LAC | Q3 1:25 | 6 | 23 | Field goal | 41–19 |
| SF | Q4 13:29 | 3 | 17 | Turnover | 41–19 |
| LAC | Q4 11:56 | 13 | 61 | Touchdown | 48–19 |
| SF | Q4 4:20 | 11 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 48–19 |
| LAC | Q4 0:31 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 48–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/31 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.