Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/31 | 214 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bryan Gilmore | 2 | 31 | 15.5 | 0 |
| Maurice Hicks | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.2%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.78
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.78
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.