Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 22 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 10:34 | 12 | 60 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:20 | 11 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 0:40 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:50 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 9:02 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 7:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:57 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 4:17 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 2:36 | 6 | 84 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:04 | 5 | 43 | Missed field goal | 7–7 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 80 | Touchdown | 14–7 |
| LAC | Q3 14:06 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 14–7 |
| SF | Q3 11:58 | 10 | 41 | Field goal | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 6:38 | 9 | 45 | Punt | 17–7 |
| SF | Q3 3:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 0:35 | 4 | 71 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| SF | Q4 13:26 | 9 | 43 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q4 7:38 | 6 | 62 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| SF | Q4 5:05 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q4 3:22 | 12 | 51 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| SF | Q4 0:31 | 4 | 29 | Turnover | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 3 | 0 | Punt | 17–17 |
| SF | OT | 10 | 58 | Missed field goal | 17–17 |
| LAC | OT | 8 | 47 | Field goal | 17–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/43 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 11 | 171 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 8 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.