Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
43
Model margin
+1.6est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 25/43 | 337 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrison Hearst | 12 | 66 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 13 | 49 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 7 | 11 | 171 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 8 | 13 | 78 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Garrison Hearst | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Cedrick Wilson | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Justin Swift | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevan Barlow | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.55
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.