2022 · Week 10

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

16·22

49ers

San Francisco

QB Jimmy Garoppolo

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SF -8.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.8est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge map49ers
  • +0.007EPA / play+0.084
  • 44.1%Success rate46.1%
  • +0.037EPA / dropback+0.171
  • -0.057EPA / rush-0.021
  • 6.9%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +1.13CPOE-1.99
  • 43.5%Third-down rate45.1%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.20
  • 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W4SF @ LAC27–29CHARGERS
2014 · W16SD @ SF38–35CHARGERS
2010 · W15SF @ SD7–34CHARGERS
2006 · W6SD @ SF48–19CHARGERS
2002 · W11SF @ SD17–20CHARGERS
2000 · W14SF @ SD45–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–SF
LACQ1 15:00775Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 11:351367Field goal7–3
LACQ1 4:10638Punt7–3
SFQ1 0:44118Turnover7–3
LACQ1 0:3433Field goal10–3
SFQ2 14:5235Punt10–3
LACQ2 13:3434Punt10–3
SFQ2 12:0839Punt10–3
LACQ2 10:25844Field goal13–3
SFQ2 6:42980Touchdown13–10
LACQ2 1:571122Field goal16–10
SFQ3 15:001167Field goal16–13
LACQ3 8:52626Punt16–13
SFQ3 6:30520Punt16–13
LACQ3 3:38616Punt16–13
SFQ4 14:531587Touchdown16–19
LACQ4 7:5433Punt16–19
SFQ4 6:40729Punt16–19
LACQ4 2:0347Turnover on downs16–19
SFQ4 1:1736Field goal16–22
LACQ4 0:5810Turnover16–22
SFQ4 0:4300End of half16–22

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/3519611
Chase Daniel0/2000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler6244.00
Justin Herbert5224.40
Isaiah Spiller430.80
Sony Michel122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Carter44641
Josh Palmer38440
Austin Ekeler712390
Gerald Everett22230
Tre' McKitty36210
Richard Rodgers1140
Zander Horvath1110
Michael Bandy0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jimmy Garoppolo19/2824000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Elijah Mitchell18894.90
Christian McCaffrey14382.71
Deebo Samuel Sr.4276.80
Jimmy Garoppolo530.61

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Aiyuk67840
Jauan Jennings44400
Christian McCaffrey46390
Ray-Ray McCloud11330
Deebo Samuel Sr.26240
George Kittle12210
Elijah Mitchell12-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +8.56.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

1.28%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+4.75