Closing spread
SF -8.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.8est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.007EPA / play+0.084
- 44.1%Success rate46.1%
- +0.037EPA / dropback+0.171
- -0.057EPA / rush-0.021
- 6.9%Explosive rate10.7%
- +1.13CPOE-1.99
- 43.5%Third-down rate45.1%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate60.5%
- 1.97Points / drive2.20
- 1.5%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/35 | 196 | 1 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 6 | 24 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Sony Michel | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Carter | 4 | 4 | 64 | 1 |
| Josh Palmer | 3 | 8 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 7 | 12 | 39 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 23 | 0 |
| Tre' McKitty | 3 | 6 | 21 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Zander Horvath | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Bandy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 19/28 | 240 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elijah Mitchell | 18 | 89 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 14 | 38 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 4 | 27 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Jimmy Garoppolo | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 7 | 84 | 0 |
| Jauan Jennings | 4 | 4 | 40 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 1 | 33 | 0 |
| Deebo Samuel Sr. | 2 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| George Kittle | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.28%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.49
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+4.75