2018 · Week 4

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB C.J. Beathard

27·29

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

StubHub Center · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

LAC -10

Total

46

Model margin

+8.6est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

3.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Chargers wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapChargers
  • -0.019EPA / play+0.126
  • 44.8%Success rate47.0%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.211
  • -0.135EPA / rush+0.001
  • 11.4%Explosive rate12.5%
  • -2.68CPOE+3.54
  • 37.2%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
  • 1.66Points / drive2.31
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LAC lead 5–2 since 1999

Meetings average 53.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10LAC @ SF16–22SF
2014 · W16SD @ SF38–35CHARGERS
2010 · W15SF @ SD7–34CHARGERS
2006 · W6SD @ SF48–19CHARGERS
2002 · W11SF @ SD17–20CHARGERS
2000 · W14SF @ SD45–17SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–LAC
LACQ1 15:0030Opp touchdown7–0
LACQ1 14:0333Punt7–0
SFQ1 12:5638Punt7–0
LACQ1 11:32827Missed field goal7–0
SFQ1 7:01644Touchdown14–0
LACQ1 3:53771Touchdown14–6
SFQ1 0:432178Field goal17–6
LACQ2 4:59975Touchdown17–14
SFQ2 0:4738Punt17–14
LACQ2 0:1322Field goal17–17
SFQ3 15:003-7Punt17–17
LACQ3 13:23651Touchdown17–23
SFQ3 10:35560Turnover17–23
LACQ3 8:4235Field goal17–26
SFQ3 7:4439Punt17–26
LACQ3 5:54412Punt17–26
SFQ3 3:37284Touchdown24–26
LACQ3 2:50515Punt24–26
SFQ3 1:07849Field goal27–26
LACQ4 12:39872Field goal27–29
SFQ4 7:4137Punt27–29
LACQ4 6:50424Punt27–29
SFQ4 3:49324Turnover27–29
LACQ4 2:31215End of half27–29

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Beathard23/3729822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Breida9394.30
C.J. Beathard7192.70
Alfred Morris4143.50
Marquise Goodwin144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
George Kittle681251
Pierre Garcon47520
Kendrick Bourne34341
Matt Breida33320
Marquise Goodwin24240
Trent Taylor23120
Alfred Morris1340
Garrett Celek0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers25/3925031

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon151046.90
Austin Ekeler8253.10
Philip Rivers4-3-0.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Keenan Allen710630
Melvin Gordon710551
Tyrell Williams35480
Austin Ekeler23311
Antonio Gates24271
Mike Williams13150
Virgil Green2290
Travis Benjamin1120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.4%7.0%3.2%5.0%3.5%3.4%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

71.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.86
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+8.63