Closing spread
LAC -10
Total
46
Model margin
+8.6est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
3.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.126
- 44.8%Success rate47.0%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.211
- -0.135EPA / rush+0.001
- 11.4%Explosive rate12.5%
- -2.68CPOE+3.54
- 37.2%Third-down rate39.7%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate70.7%
- 1.66Points / drive2.31
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LAC lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. LAC are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Beathard | 23/37 | 298 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Breida | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Beathard | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| George Kittle | 6 | 8 | 125 | 1 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Kendrick Bourne | 3 | 4 | 34 | 1 |
| Matt Breida | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Marquise Goodwin | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Trent Taylor | 2 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 25/39 | 250 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 104 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Philip Rivers | 4 | -3 | -0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keenan Allen | 7 | 10 | 63 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 7 | 10 | 55 | 1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 3 | 5 | 48 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 2 | 3 | 31 | 1 |
| Antonio Gates | 2 | 4 | 27 | 1 |
| Mike Williams | 1 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Travis Benjamin | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
71.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.02
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+3.86
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+8.63