Closing spread
SF -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutKeenan AllenWRCollarbone· DNP
- OutMike ScifresPShoulder· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTAnkle· Full
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEAnkle· Full
- ProbablePhilip RiversQBChest· Full
- ProbableRyan CarrethersDTElbow· Full
49ers
- OutCarlos HydeRBAnkle· DNP
- OutChris BorlandLBAnkle· DNP
- OutSteve JohnsonWRKnee· DNP
- OutTramaine BrockCBHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableAhmad BrooksLBThumb· Limited
- QuestionableAnthony DavisTConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableFrank GoreRBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableMichael CrabtreeWRKnee· Limited
- QuestionableMichael WilhoiteLBHip· Limited
- QuestionableRaymond VentroneSGroin· Limited
- ProbableChris CulliverCBKnee· Full
- ProbableJonathan MartinTIllness· Full
- ProbableJustin SmithDEBack· Full
- ProbableKyle NelsonLSBack· Full
- ProbableMarcus MartinCKnee· Full
- ProbablePerrish CoxCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableQuinton DialDTKnee· Full
- ProbableTony Jerod-EddieDEFoot· Full
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 76 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 13:12 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 12:05 | 8 | 56 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 8:40 | 8 | 35 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:08 | 11 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LAC | Q2 13:36 | 8 | 20 | Opp touchdown | 0–21 |
| LAC | Q2 10:20 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–21 |
| SF | Q2 5:09 | 14 | 59 | Touchdown | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–28 |
| SF | Q3 13:51 | 4 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 12:32 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–28 |
| SF | Q3 10:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–28 |
| LAC | Q3 9:15 | 9 | 59 | Touchdown | 14–28 |
| SF | Q3 5:49 | 6 | -13 | Opp touchdown | 21–28 |
| SF | Q3 3:26 | 2 | 94 | Touchdown | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q3 2:26 | 4 | 31 | Turnover | 21–35 |
| SF | Q3 0:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 14:48 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 21–35 |
| SF | Q4 13:10 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 21–35 |
| LAC | Q4 8:55 | 10 | 80 | Touchdown | 28–35 |
| SF | Q4 5:15 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 28–35 |
| LAC | Q4 3:30 | 15 | 75 | Touchdown | 35–35 |
| SF | Q4 0:29 | 5 | 30 | Missed field goal | 35–35 |
| SF | OT | 2 | 25 | Turnover | 35–35 |
| LAC | OT | 8 | 40 | Field goal | 38–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/24 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 26 | 158 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 151 | 21.6 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.