Closing spread
SF -2
Total
40.5
Model margin
+2.0est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SF are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/24 | 114 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 26 | 158 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 151 | 21.6 | 1 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 7 | 9 | 61 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 2 | 6 | 9 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.4%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.