Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 44 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SF | Q1 12:24 | 5 | 31 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 10:24 | 9 | 46 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:43 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 1:14 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:48 | 5 | 43 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:31 | 7 | 14 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:26 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 6:04 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 3:33 | 6 | 74 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 1:10 | 5 | 40 | Field goal | 17–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–10 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 17–10 |
| LAC | Q3 13:24 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 17–10 |
| SF | Q3 10:17 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 20–10 |
| LAC | Q3 6:31 | 5 | 26 | Turnover | 20–10 |
| SF | Q3 4:20 | 5 | 10 | Touchdown | 27–10 |
| LAC | Q3 2:56 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 27–10 |
| SF | Q3 1:50 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 27–10 |
| LAC | Q4 14:45 | 5 | 61 | Touchdown | 27–17 |
| SF | Q4 12:47 | 5 | 49 | Field goal | 30–17 |
| LAC | Q4 9:23 | 3 | 0 | Turnover | 36–17 |
| SF | Q4 8:50 | 1 | 12 | Touchdown | 38–17 |
| LAC | Q4 8:44 | 6 | 14 | Turnover | 38–17 |
| SF | Q4 7:10 | 6 | 12 | Punt | 38–17 |
| LAC | Q4 2:38 | 5 | 24 | Opp touchdown | 45–17 |
| SF | Q4 1:39 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 45–17 |
| LAC | Q4 1:39 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 45–17 |
| SF | Q4 1:18 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 45–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/32 | 323 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 5 | 41 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.