Closing spread
SF -2.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 18/32 | 323 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 1/1 | -4 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Garner | 13 | 28 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Jeff Garcia | 3 | 19 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Paul Smith | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tim Rattay | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrell Owens | 4 | 5 | 93 | 0 |
| J.J. Stokes | 3 | 7 | 74 | 0 |
| Greg Clark | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Jerry Rice | 3 | 5 | 41 | 2 |
| Tai Streets | 1 | 1 | 39 | 0 |
| Charlie Garner | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.01
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.