Closing spread
SD -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/29 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 7 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.