Closing spread
SD -10
Total
44.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
49ers
- OutJoe NedneyKright Knee· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- OutJoe StaleyTFibula· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableNavorro BowmanLBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionablePatrick WillisLBHand· DNP
- QuestionableTakeo SpikesLBHand· DNP
- ProbableBrian WestbrookRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableDeShawn WynnRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableMike IupatiGShoulder· Full
- ProbableNate ByhamTEShoulder· Full
Chargers
- OutLarry EnglishLBFoot· DNP
- OutPatrick CraytonWRWrist· DNP
- DoubtfulAntonio GatesTEToe· DNP
- QuestionableBrandon SilerLBRibs· Full
- QuestionableLouis VasquezGNeck· Full
- QuestionableMalcom FloydWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionablePat WatkinsSKnee· DNP
- ProbableJacques CesaireDEKnee· Limited
- ProbableAntonio GarayDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableMarcus McNeillTKnee· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 5–2 since 1999
Meetings average 53.4 points. SD are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SF–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 74 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 12:53 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 9:31 | 6 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 5:54 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:11 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| SF | Q1 3:07 | 10 | 46 | Turnover on downs | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q2 13:03 | 12 | 85 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| SF | Q2 6:03 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 4:08 | 7 | 72 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| SF | Q2 1:19 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 0:02 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–17 |
| SF | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q3 13:04 | 14 | 58 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| SF | Q3 4:52 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–24 |
| LAC | Q3 3:22 | 11 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–31 |
| SF | Q4 12:06 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 0–31 |
| LAC | Q4 9:34 | 4 | 14 | Field goal | 0–34 |
| SF | Q4 7:38 | 6 | 55 | Touchdown | 7–34 |
| LAC | Q4 4:26 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–34 |
| SF | Q4 3:18 | 6 | 3 | Turnover on downs | 7–34 |
| LAC | Q4 2:00 | 3 | -2 | End of half | 7–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 19/29 | 165 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Dixon | 6 | 33 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 8 | 22 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Alex Smith | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morgan | 7 | 9 | 106 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Delanie Walker | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brian Westbrook | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Anthony Dixon | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
2.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.8%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.37
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.