Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
45
Model margin
+2.0est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.95%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.00
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.