2006 · Week 8

Final

Rams

St. Louis

QB Marc Bulger

24·38

Chargers

San Diego

QB Philip Rivers

Qualcomm Stadium · outdoors · grass · 72°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

SD -9.5

Total

45

Model margin

+2.0est.

SD perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

STL lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.6 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17LA @ LAC10–31CHARGERS
2018 · W3LAC @ LA23–35RAMS
2014 · W12STL @ SD24–27CHARGERS
2010 · W6SD @ STL17–20RAMS
2002 · W10SD @ STL24–28RAMS
2000 · W5SD @ STL31–57RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSTL–SD
LACQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
LAQ1 7:053-2Punt0–7
LACQ1 5:10356Touchdown0–14
LAQ1 3:331174Touchdown7–14
LACQ2 12:26619Punt7–14
LAQ2 8:1932Punt7–14
LACQ2 7:1647Turnover on downs7–14
LAQ2 6:17614Punt7–14
LACQ2 3:40855Punt7–14
LAQ2 1:0729End of half7–14
LAQ3 15:00415Punt7–14
LACQ3 13:0539Punt7–14
LAQ3 11:47564Opp touchdown7–21
LAQ3 8:56568Field goal10–21
LACQ3 7:18770Field goal10–24
LAQ3 3:17521Punt10–24
LACQ3 0:56884Touchdown10–31
LAQ4 11:441184Touchdown17–31
LACQ4 6:39542Touchdown17–38
LAQ4 3:581063Touchdown24–38
LACQ4 1:313-3End of half24–38

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

2.95%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.00

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.