Closing spread
LA -7.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.0est.
LA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.126EPA / play+0.149
- 47.0%Success rate50.8%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.203
- +0.001EPA / rush+0.065
- 12.5%Explosive rate12.1%
- +3.54CPOE+1.24
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.0%
- 70.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.31Points / drive2.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | 18/30 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melvin Gordon | 15 | 80 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 47 | 11.8 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 4 | 7 | 81 | 2 |
| Antonio Gates | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Tyrell Williams | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Goff | 29/36 | 354 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Gurley | 23 | 105 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Malcolm Brown | 5 | 42 | 8.4 | 0 |
| Jared Goff | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Woods | 10 | 11 | 104 | 2 |
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Cooper Kupp | 4 | 5 | 71 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley | 5 | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 2 | 2 | 35 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.96