2018 · Week 3

Final

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Philip Rivers

23·35

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Jared Goff

Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

LA -7.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.0est.

LA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chargers

Rams

Win probability

  • Rams
  • Chargers

How each play moved the game.

Rams winsChargers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chargersedge mapRams
  • +0.126EPA / play+0.149
  • 47.0%Success rate50.8%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.203
  • +0.001EPA / rush+0.065
  • 12.5%Explosive rate12.1%
  • +3.54CPOE+1.24
  • 39.7%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 70.7%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.31Points / drive2.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.6 points. LA are 4-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W17LA @ LAC10–31CHARGERS
2014 · W12STL @ SD24–27CHARGERS
2010 · W6SD @ STL17–20RAMS
2006 · W8STL @ SD24–38CHARGERS
2002 · W10SD @ STL24–28RAMS
2000 · W5SD @ STL31–57RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLAC–LA
LAQ1 15:00631Turnover0–0
LACQ1 13:0035Punt0–0
LAQ1 12:041175Touchdown0–7
LACQ1 6:14360Touchdown6–7
LAQ1 4:42775Touchdown6–14
LACQ1 0:5134Punt6–14
LAQ2 14:421267Turnover6–14
LACQ2 9:4333Opp touchdown6–21
LACQ2 7:44433Touchdown6–21
LACQ2 6:181-7Touchdown6–21
LACQ2 5:28549Touchdown13–21
LAQ2 3:121065Missed field goal13–21
LACQ3 15:00429Turnover13–21
LAQ3 13:29355Touchdown13–28
LACQ3 12:38875Touchdown20–28
LAQ3 8:181282Touchdown20–35
LACQ3 3:191258Field goal23–35
LAQ4 11:49736Punt23–35
LACQ4 7:38647Turnover23–35
LAQ4 4:23737End of half23–35

Box score

Individual performances

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Philip Rivers18/3022620

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Melvin Gordon15805.31
Austin Ekeler44711.80
Tyrell Williams11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams47812
Antonio Gates35450
Keenan Allen37440
Austin Ekeler33240
Tyrell Williams23220
Virgil Green1160
Melvin Gordon2440

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jared Goff29/3635431

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Todd Gurley231054.61
Malcolm Brown5428.40
Jared Goff3144.70
Robert Woods3134.30
Cooper Kupp1-3-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Robert Woods10111042
Brandin Cooks78900
Cooper Kupp45711
Todd Gurley56510
Tyler Higbee22350
Gerald Everett1230
Malcolm Brown0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.54.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.96