Closing spread
STL -6
Total
44
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LAC | Q1 11:43 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 8:24 | 2 | 4 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 7:36 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| LA | Q1 7:36 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| LAC | Q1 5:51 | 11 | 57 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| LA | Q2 14:01 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 10–7 |
| LAC | Q2 12:20 | 7 | 41 | Touchdown | 17–7 |
| LA | Q2 8:54 | 15 | 92 | Turnover | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q2 0:15 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 17–7 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 37 | Punt | 17–7 |
| LA | Q3 11:34 | 6 | 87 | Touchdown | 17–14 |
| LAC | Q3 9:12 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 17–14 |
| LA | Q3 8:07 | 5 | 49 | Opp touchdown | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 5:09 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 24–14 |
| LA | Q3 5:09 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q3 2:02 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 14:46 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q4 14:28 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 12:01 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LAC | Q4 10:38 | 9 | 47 | Punt | 24–14 |
| LA | Q4 4:58 | 7 | 89 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LAC | Q4 3:06 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 24–21 |
| LA | Q4 3:06 | 9 | 64 | Touchdown | 24–28 |
| LAC | Q4 1:14 | 6 | 21 | Turnover | 24–28 |
| LA | Q4 0:11 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 24–28 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
3.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.