Closing spread
STL -17
Total
53.5
Model margin
+2.6est.
STL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Rams
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 42 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 12:28 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 9:03 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 6:38 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–10 |
| LA | Q1 6:22 | 2 | 29 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q1 5:44 | 9 | 49 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LA | Q1 0:40 | 9 | 66 | Field goal | 3–20 |
| LAC | Q2 11:59 | 10 | 77 | Touchdown | 10–20 |
| LA | Q2 6:35 | 8 | 83 | Touchdown | 10–27 |
| LAC | Q2 2:41 | 6 | 43 | Missed field goal | 10–27 |
| LA | Q2 0:53 | 6 | 48 | Field goal | 10–30 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 17–30 |
| LA | Q3 12:00 | 2 | 63 | Touchdown | 17–37 |
| LAC | Q3 10:57 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–37 |
| LA | Q3 9:45 | 4 | 33 | Field goal | 17–40 |
| LAC | Q3 8:15 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–40 |
| LA | Q3 5:37 | 4 | 65 | Touchdown | 17–47 |
| LAC | Q3 4:00 | 3 | -4 | Turnover | 17–47 |
| LA | Q3 2:33 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 17–50 |
| LAC | Q4 11:36 | 9 | 77 | Touchdown | 24–50 |
| LA | Q4 7:42 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–57 |
| LAC | Q4 3:19 | 3 | 71 | Touchdown | 31–57 |
| LA | Q4 1:52 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 31–57 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
1.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.56
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.