Closing spread
SD -4
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutAlex CarringtonDTKnee· DNP
- OutDamian WilliamsWRHamstring· DNP
- OutLamarcus JoynerCBGroin· DNP
- OutMarcus RobersonCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableCory HarkeyTEQuadricep· Limited
- QuestionableJake McQuaideLSBack· DNP
- QuestionableJared CookTEBack· Limited
- ProbableDaren BatesLBGroin· Full
- ProbableDavin JosephGNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBFoot· Full
- ProbableWill HerringLBFoot· Full
Chargers
- OutRyan CarrethersDTElbow· DNP
- QuestionableJahleel AddaeSConcussion· Full
- QuestionableRich OhrnbergerCAnkle· DNP
- ProbablePhilip RiversQBChest· Full
- ProbableSean LissemoreDTQuadricep· Full
- ProbableSteve WilliamsCBHamstring· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. SD are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:35 | 3 | 1 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:40 | 5 | 18 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 9:10 | 13 | 73 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LAC | Q1 1:03 | 8 | 72 | Opp touchdown | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 11:32 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 9:15 | 7 | 52 | Missed field goal | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:25 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LA | Q2 2:18 | 7 | 8 | Punt | 10–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:33 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| LA | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 10–6 |
| LAC | Q3 12:39 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| LA | Q3 9:50 | 2 | -7 | Opp touchdown | 10–20 |
| LA | Q3 9:29 | 4 | 13 | Punt | 10–20 |
| LA | Q3 7:11 | 3 | 21 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q3 6:18 | 7 | 67 | Turnover | 17–20 |
| LA | Q3 2:07 | 4 | 21 | Punt | 17–20 |
| LAC | Q3 0:25 | 11 | 103 | Touchdown | 17–27 |
| LA | Q4 8:09 | 14 | 90 | Touchdown | 24–27 |
| LAC | Q4 2:04 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 24–27 |
| LA | Q4 1:27 | 5 | 36 | Turnover | 24–27 |
| LAC | Q4 0:55 | 3 | -1 | End of half | 24–27 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.