Closing spread
LAC -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.5est.
LAC perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Chargers
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.083EPA / play+0.007
- 41.2%Success rate44.1%
- -0.094EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.057
- 7.4%Explosive rate6.9%
- -2.69CPOE+1.13
- 40.2%Third-down rate43.5%
- 60.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.57Points / drive1.97
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
LA lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Rams
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 11/19 | 132 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Akers | 19 | 123 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Malcolm Brown | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 1 |
| Baker Mayfield | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kyren Williams | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Van Jefferson | 3 | 3 | 77 | 0 |
| Brycen Hopkins | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Tyler Higbee | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Cam Akers | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Tutu Atwell | 2 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Powell | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| Lance McCutcheon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chargers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Herbert | 21/28 | 212 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3/3 | 27 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler | 10 | 122 | 12.2 | 2 |
| Joshua Kelley | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 10 | 15 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Justin Herbert | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Williams | 7 | 10 | 94 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 5 | 6 | 60 | 0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 3 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| DeAndre Carter | 2 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Larry Rountree III | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Donald Parham | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| Joshua Kelley | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Josh Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+3.54