2022 · Week 17

Final

Rams

Los Angeles

QB Baker Mayfield

10·31

Chargers

Los Angeles

QB Justin Herbert

SoFi Stadium · dome · matrixturf

Closing spread

LAC -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.5est.

LAC perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Rams

Chargers

Win probability

  • Chargers
  • Rams

How each play moved the game.

Chargers winsRams wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Ramsedge mapChargers
  • -0.083EPA / play+0.007
  • 41.2%Success rate44.1%
  • -0.094EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.057
  • 7.4%Explosive rate6.9%
  • -2.69CPOE+1.13
  • 40.2%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 60.5%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.57Points / drive1.97
  • 2.3%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

LA lead 4–3 since 1999

Meetings average 55.6 points. LAC are 3-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2018 · W3LAC @ LA23–35RAMS
2014 · W12STL @ SD24–27CHARGERS
2010 · W6SD @ STL17–20RAMS
2006 · W8STL @ SD24–38CHARGERS
2002 · W10SD @ STL24–28RAMS
2000 · W5SD @ STL31–57RAMS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultLA–LAC
LAQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
LACQ1 12:13623Punt0–0
LAQ1 9:191281Field goal3–0
LACQ1 1:09575Touchdown3–7
LAQ2 13:40546Punt3–7
LACQ2 10:20590Touchdown3–14
LAQ2 8:25780Touchdown10–14
LACQ2 4:091253Field goal10–17
LAQ2 0:1400End of half10–17
LACQ3 15:001175Touchdown10–24
LAQ3 8:46536Turnover10–24
LACQ3 6:0932Punt10–24
LAQ3 4:29516Punt10–24
LACQ3 1:13970Touchdown10–31
LAQ4 12:1237Punt10–31
LACQ4 11:12728Punt10–31
LAQ4 6:334-9Punt10–31
LACQ4 5:05615Punt10–31
LAQ4 1:0026End of half10–31

Box score

Individual performances

Rams

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Baker Mayfield11/1913200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Akers191236.50
Malcolm Brown12323.01
Baker Mayfield382.70
Brandon Powell166.00
Kyren Williams263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Van Jefferson33770
Brycen Hopkins11210
Tyler Higbee34110
Cam Akers12100
Tutu Atwell25100
Brandon Powell1230
Lance McCutcheon0100

Chargers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Justin Herbert21/2821220
Chase Daniel3/32700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Austin Ekeler1012212.22
Joshua Kelley9455.00
Larry Rountree III10151.50
Keenan Allen188.00
Justin Herbert122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Williams710940
Keenan Allen56600
Austin Ekeler44390
Gerald Everett33151
DeAndre Carter23140
Larry Rountree III11130
Donald Parham1131
Joshua Kelley1210
Josh Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Rams.

Half-point at risk

4.84%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+3.54