Closing spread
SD -9.5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutLarry EnglishLBFoot· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- DoubtfulBrandon SilerLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulLegedu NaaneeWRHamstring· DNP
- ProbableCraig DavisWRRibs· Full
- ProbableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutChris ChamberlainLBToe· DNP
- QuestionableDavid VoboraLBHamstring· DNP
- ProbableDarell ScottDTAnkle· Limited
- ProbableKenneth DarbyRBRibs· Limited
- ProbableBilly BajemaTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJacob BellGHead· Full
- ProbableJustin KingCBCalf· Full
- ProbableKevin DockeryCBHamstring· Full
- ProbableMardy GilyardWRThigh· Full
- ProbableMichael HoomanawanuiTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableRon BartellCBCalf· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 55.6 points. STL are 4-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:10 | 8 | 30 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 9:31 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 8:05 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:35 | 7 | 31 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 3:14 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q1 0:43 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 13:54 | 7 | 24 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 11:05 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LA | Q2 9:37 | 17 | 71 | Touchdown | 0–17 |
| LAC | Q2 1:39 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| LA | Q2 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 14:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LA | Q3 12:35 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–17 |
| LAC | Q3 10:29 | 11 | 68 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LA | Q3 4:41 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q3 1:45 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LA | Q3 0:42 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| LAC | Q4 13:42 | 12 | 52 | Missed field goal | 10–17 |
| LA | Q4 8:11 | 9 | 37 | Field goal | 10–20 |
| LAC | Q4 3:56 | 6 | 71 | Touchdown | 17–20 |
| LA | Q4 3:16 | 5 | 28 | End of half | 17–20 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
0.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.