Closing spread
NYG -13
Total
43
Model margin
+3.1est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
1.7%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.062EPA / play-0.017
- 43.2%Success rate45.6%
- -0.069EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.052EPA / rush-0.017
- 6.8%Explosive rate9.6%
- +4.14CPOE-3.95
- 38.7%Third-down rate38.8%
- 64.6%Red-zone TD rate62.8%
- 1.41Points / drive1.77
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. NYG are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 21/30 | 176 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wali Lundy | 20 | 43 | 2.1 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Jameel Cook | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 17/28 | 179 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 17 | 115 | 6.8 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Mike Jennings | 1 | -9 | -9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
1.65%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.3%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.52
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.08