2026 · Week 7

Final / OT

Giants

New York

QB J.J. McCarthy

27·21

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

Reliant Stadium · closed

Closing spread

HOU -10

Total

42.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTexans
  • +0.027EPA / play+0.031
  • 42.9%Success rate43.4%
  • +0.118EPA / dropback+0.138
  • -0.102EPA / rush-0.167
  • 7.8%Explosive rate8.4%
  • -2.00CPOE+2.27
  • 44.9%Third-down rate37.8%
  • 62.4%Red-zone TD rate60.4%
  • 2.15Points / drive2.19
  • 2.1%Turnover rate0.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2022 · W10HOU @ NYG16–24NYG
2018 · W3NYG @ HOU27–22NYG
2014 · W3HOU @ NYG17–30NYG
2010 · W5NYG @ HOU34–10NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG
2002 · W12NYG @ HOU14–16HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00630Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 11:40966Touchdown7–3
HOUQ1 6:2633Punt7–3
NYGQ1 5:17647Missed field goal7–3
HOUQ1 1:1844Punt7–3
NYGQ2 14:5034Punt7–3
HOUQ2 12:39739Field goal7–6
NYGQ2 9:031073Touchdown14–6
HOUQ2 3:321168Touchdown14–14
NYGQ2 0:34331Missed field goal14–14
NYGQ3 15:00833Punt14–14
HOUQ3 10:0739Punt14–14
NYGQ3 8:0533Punt14–14
HOUQ3 6:55921Punt14–14
NYGQ3 2:131480Touchdown21–14
HOUQ4 8:55515Punt21–14
NYGQ4 6:453-10Punt21–14
HOUQ4 5:06948Touchdown21–21
NYGQ4 0:52312End of half21–21
HOUOT30Punt21–21
NYGOT381Touchdown27–21

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
J.J. McCarthy20/2825200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Skattebo171247.31
Devin Singletary5418.21
Tyrone Tracy Jr.6152.51
Jameis Winston441.01
Darnell Mooney133.00
J.J. McCarthy111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Malik Nabers791110
Malachi Fields45830
Thomas Fidone II11290
Devin Singletary33140
Isaiah Likely24120
Darnell Mooney1340
Tyrone Tracy Jr.1120
Cam Skattebo11-30

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud17/2815320

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Woody Marks19663.50
Xavier Hutchinson2126.00
C.J. Stroud242.00
Tank Dell122.00
Cade Stover100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dalton Schultz56450
Tank Dell11430
Kayshon Boutte12250
Xavier Hutchinson36171
Woody Marks11150
Nico Collins2560
Marvin Harrison Jr.1461
Cade Stover11-10
Jaylin Noel22-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +107.5%7.0%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

2.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.3%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.11
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.14