Closing spread
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Total
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Model margin
-6.5est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
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Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
Giantsedge mapTexans
- +0.363EPA / play+0.071
- 59.1%Success rate48.1%
- +0.667EPA / dropback+0.098
- +0.059EPA / rush+0.030
- 6.1%Explosive rate8.9%
- +13.38CPOE+3.16
- 90.0%Third-down rate43.8%
- 80.0%Red-zone TD rate80.0%
- 3.97Points / drive2.80
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-8.74
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-6.52