2002 · Week 12

Final

Giants

New York

QB Kerry Collins

14·16

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

34

Model margin

-0.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTexans
  • +0.008EPA / play-0.226
  • 41.7%Success rate33.0%
  • +0.151EPA / dropback-0.172
  • -0.177EPA / rush-0.307
  • 9.6%Explosive rate5.8%
  • 38.8%Third-down rate25.7%
  • 44.5%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
  • 1.46Points / drive0.66
  • 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
  • -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.083

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NYG @ HOU27–21NYG
2022 · W10HOU @ NYG16–24NYG
2018 · W3NYG @ HOU27–22NYG
2014 · W3HOU @ NYG17–30NYG
2010 · W5NYG @ HOU34–10NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–HOU
HOUQ1 15:003-10Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:4410Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 13:373-1Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 13:1831Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:4134Punt0–0
NYGQ1 10:44518Punt0–0
HOUQ1 8:16522Punt0–0
NYGQ1 5:17524Punt0–0
HOUQ1 3:181073Field goal0–3
NYGQ2 12:29522Punt0–3
HOUQ2 10:5135Punt0–3
NYGQ2 9:47611Punt0–3
HOUQ2 7:2633Punt0–3
NYGQ2 6:07586Touchdown7–3
HOUQ2 3:40618Punt7–3
NYGQ2 1:34511Safety7–5
HOUQ2 0:192-3End of half7–5
NYGQ3 15:00731Punt7–5
HOUQ3 10:32739Touchdown7–13
NYGQ3 6:41940Missed field goal7–13
HOUQ3 3:0856Punt7–13
NYGQ3 0:25661Touchdown14–13
HOUQ4 13:101041Field goal14–16
NYGQ4 6:5751Turnover14–16
HOUQ4 5:5736Punt14–16
NYGQ4 3:36639Turnover14–16
HOUQ4 1:1939Punt14–16
NYGQ4 0:22324End of half14–16

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kerry Collins18/4121412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tiki Barber201477.31
Ron Dayne5214.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Amani Toomer8151131
Jeremy Shockey411600
Tiki Barber44200
Daryl Jones13180
Dan Campbell1130
Herman Moore0300
Derek Dorris0100
Delvin Joyce0100
Charles Stackhouse0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr10/2310300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Wells24682.81
David Carr6549.00
James Allen510.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Billy Miller46700
Corey Bradford16160
Jabar Gaffney24140
Jabari Holloway1280
JaJuan Dawson0100
Jarrod Baxter0100
James Allen12-20
Jonathan Wells11-30

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -5.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

1.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.1%

Expected total

41.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.73