Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
34
Model margin
-0.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play-0.226
- 41.7%Success rate33.0%
- +0.151EPA / dropback-0.172
- -0.177EPA / rush-0.307
- 9.6%Explosive rate5.8%
- 38.8%Third-down rate25.7%
- 44.5%Red-zone TD rate39.5%
- 1.46Points / drive0.66
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
- -0.060EPA / play allowed-0.083
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 18/41 | 214 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 20 | 147 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Ron Dayne | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amani Toomer | 8 | 15 | 113 | 1 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 4 | 11 | 60 | 0 |
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Daryl Jones | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Herman Moore | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Derek Dorris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Delvin Joyce | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 10/23 | 103 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Wells | 24 | 68 | 2.8 | 1 |
| David Carr | 6 | 54 | 9.0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 5 | 1 | 0.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Miller | 4 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 1 | 6 | 16 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Jabari Holloway | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| JaJuan Dawson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| James Allen | 1 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
1.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.1%
Expected total
41.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.29
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.73