Closing spread
NYG -5.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.167EPA / play+0.033
- 38.0%Success rate45.0%
- -0.147EPA / dropback+0.058
- -0.204EPA / rush-0.004
- 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
- -4.69CPOE+1.68
- 30.1%Third-down rate37.7%
- 52.2%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
- 1.17Points / drive2.02
- 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. NYG are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis Mills | 22/37 | 319 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 17 | 94 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Akins | 3 | 3 | 72 | 0 |
| Chris Moore | 3 | 6 | 70 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 5 | 10 | 49 | 1 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 7 | 37 | 0 |
| Rex Burkhead | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Dameon Pierce | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Dare Ogunbowale | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| O.J. Howard | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Jones | 13/17 | 197 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 35 | 152 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Daniel Jones | 5 | 24 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Matt Breida | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Slayton | 3 | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2 | 2 | 41 | 0 |
| Tanner Hudson | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Lawrence Cager | 2 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kenny Golladay | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Myarick | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.6%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.32
- Expected margin+3.57