2022 · Week 10

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Davis Mills

16·24

Giants

New York

QB Daniel Jones

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 50°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

NYG -5.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapGiants
  • -0.167EPA / play+0.033
  • 38.0%Success rate45.0%
  • -0.147EPA / dropback+0.058
  • -0.204EPA / rush-0.004
  • 7.6%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -4.69CPOE+1.68
  • 30.1%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 52.2%Red-zone TD rate71.3%
  • 1.17Points / drive2.02
  • 2.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NYG @ HOU27–21NYG
2018 · W3NYG @ HOU27–22NYG
2014 · W3HOU @ NYG17–30NYG
2010 · W5NYG @ HOU34–10NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG
2002 · W12NYG @ HOU14–16HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYG
HOUQ1 15:003-13Punt0–0
NYGQ1 13:131173Touchdown0–7
HOUQ1 7:5136Punt0–7
NYGQ1 6:1436Punt0–7
HOUQ1 4:5534Punt0–7
NYGQ1 3:26734Punt0–7
HOUQ2 14:53661Field goal3–7
NYGQ2 11:27835Punt3–7
HOUQ2 5:59714Punt3–7
NYGQ2 2:10619Punt3–7
HOUQ2 0:59514Punt3–7
NYGQ2 0:23315End of half3–7
NYGQ3 15:00575Touchdown3–14
HOUQ3 12:33772Touchdown10–14
NYGQ3 8:061274Touchdown10–21
HOUQ3 2:21867Turnover10–21
NYGQ4 14:0939Punt10–21
HOUQ4 12:00638Turnover10–21
NYGQ4 9:49720Punt10–21
HOUQ4 4:401276Field goal13–21
NYGQ4 2:2238Field goal13–24
HOUQ4 1:55448Field goal16–24
NYGQ4 0:0700End of half16–24

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Davis Mills22/3731911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce17945.50
Brandin Cooks155.00
Rex Burkhead122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Akins33720
Chris Moore36700
Nico Collins510491
Brandin Cooks47370
Rex Burkhead22280
Dameon Pierce23280
Phillip Dorsett24220
Dare Ogunbowale11130
O.J. Howard0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Daniel Jones13/1719720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley351524.31
Daniel Jones5244.80
Matt Breida6203.30
Wan'Dale Robinson1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Darius Slayton34951
Isaiah Hodgins22410
Tanner Hudson33240
Wan'Dale Robinson22200
Lawrence Cager2291
Saquon Barkley1180
Kenny Golladay0200
Chris Myarick0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.6%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.32
  • Expected margin+3.57