2010 · Week 5

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

34·10

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

HOU -3

Total

48.5

Model margin

+1.9est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTexans
  • -0.006EPA / play+0.107
  • 44.3%Success rate47.5%
  • +0.081EPA / dropback+0.151
  • -0.118EPA / rush+0.039
  • 10.7%Explosive rate10.7%
  • +2.60CPOE+0.65
  • 37.0%Third-down rate41.2%
  • 67.4%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
  • 1.81Points / drive2.09
  • 4.0%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NYG @ HOU27–21NYG
2022 · W10HOU @ NYG16–24NYG
2018 · W3NYG @ HOU27–22NYG
2014 · W3HOU @ NYG17–30NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG
2002 · W12NYG @ HOU14–16HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–HOU
HOUQ1 15:00412Punt0–0
NYGQ1 12:343-3Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:2436Punt0–0
NYGQ1 9:51885Touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 5:19310Turnover7–0
NYGQ1 4:03440Touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 2:0430Punt14–0
NYGQ1 0:54655Touchdown21–0
HOUQ2 12:56935Field goal21–3
NYGQ2 8:47612Punt21–3
HOUQ2 6:02412Punt21–3
NYGQ2 4:111265Field goal24–3
HOUQ2 0:0200End of half24–3
NYGQ3 15:0036Punt24–3
HOUQ3 13:10334Turnover24–3
NYGQ3 12:15411Turnover24–3
HOUQ3 10:11624Punt24–3
NYGQ3 7:5930Turnover24–3
HOUQ3 7:32217Touchdown24–10
NYGQ3 7:001142Field goal27–10
HOUQ3 1:22628Punt27–10
NYGQ4 14:00517Punt27–10
HOUQ4 10:3330Punt27–10
NYGQ4 10:02973Touchdown34–10
HOUQ4 4:50618Turnover on downs34–10
NYGQ4 2:40114End of half34–10

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning27/4229732

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ahmad Bradshaw16674.20
Brandon Jacobs10414.11
Eli Manning691.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Hakeem Nicks12171302
Steve Smith68891
Kevin Boss46400
Ahmad Bradshaw34220
Ramses Barden1180
Travis Beckum1280
Mario Manningham0200
Bear Pascoe0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub16/3419601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster11252.30
Derrick Ward111.01
Matt Schaub1-1-1.00
Steve Slaton2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Johnson513950
Owen Daniels35450
Kevin Walter25240
Derrick Ward11120
Arian Foster2420
Joel Dreessen0200
David Anderson1200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.2%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.92