Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
48.5
Model margin
+1.9est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.006EPA / play+0.107
- 44.3%Success rate47.5%
- +0.081EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.118EPA / rush+0.039
- 10.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- +2.60CPOE+0.65
- 37.0%Third-down rate41.2%
- 67.4%Red-zone TD rate67.4%
- 1.81Points / drive2.09
- 4.0%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 27/42 | 297 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 16 | 67 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 10 | 41 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Eli Manning | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hakeem Nicks | 12 | 17 | 130 | 2 |
| Steve Smith | 6 | 8 | 89 | 1 |
| Kevin Boss | 4 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 3 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Ramses Barden | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Travis Beckum | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Mario Manningham | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bear Pascoe | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 16/34 | 196 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Matt Schaub | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Steve Slaton | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 13 | 95 | 0 |
| Owen Daniels | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| David Anderson | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.2%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.92