2014 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

17·30

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 70°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

NYG -1

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapGiants
  • -0.031EPA / play-0.014
  • 40.7%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.147
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.14CPOE+0.79
  • 38.0%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.63Points / drive1.78
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. NYG are 5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NYG @ HOU27–21NYG
2022 · W10HOU @ NYG16–24NYG
2018 · W3NYG @ HOU27–22NYG
2010 · W5NYG @ HOU34–10NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG
2002 · W12NYG @ HOU14–16HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00613Punt0–0
HOUQ1 12:00944Turnover0–0
NYGQ1 7:311060Turnover0–0
HOUQ1 3:0539Punt0–0
NYGQ1 1:28668Turnover on downs0–0
HOUQ2 14:07419Punt0–0
NYGQ2 12:44637Punt0–0
HOUQ2 9:3730Punt0–0
NYGQ2 7:44983Touchdown0–7
HOUQ2 3:214-4Turnover0–7
NYGQ2 1:4832Touchdown0–14
HOUQ2 1:07515Punt0–14
NYGQ2 0:0700End of half0–14
HOUQ3 15:00519Turnover on downs0–14
NYGQ3 13:13524Field goal0–17
HOUQ3 10:39966Field goal3–17
NYGQ3 6:09421Punt3–17
HOUQ3 4:16493Touchdown10–17
NYGQ3 2:131061Field goal10–20
HOUQ4 12:1939Punt10–20
NYGQ4 10:31329Touchdown10–27
HOUQ4 9:2510Turnover10–27
NYGQ4 9:12616Field goal10–30
HOUQ4 5:33969Touchdown17–30
NYGQ4 2:0036Punt17–30
HOUQ4 1:37672End of half17–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick20/3428913

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue13786.00
Ryan Fitzpatrick7344.91
Jonathan Grimes155.00
Ronnie Brown320.70
Damaris Johnson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins691160
Damaris Johnson22561
Garrett Graham56410
Jonathan Grimes11310
Andre Johnson411240
Keshawn Martin12160
Alfred Blue11100
Ronnie Brown1150

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning21/2823420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings341765.21
Andre Williams6183.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Victor Cruz561071
Larry Donnell66450
Preston Parker34330
Rueben Randle510270
Daniel Fells22221

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.4%

Expected total

42.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.24