Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play-0.014
- 40.7%Success rate41.2%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.147
- 8.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.14CPOE+0.79
- 38.0%Third-down rate43.5%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.63Points / drive1.78
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. NYG are 4-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 20/34 | 289 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 13 | 78 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 9 | 116 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 2 | 2 | 56 | 1 |
| Garrett Graham | 5 | 6 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonathan Grimes | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 11 | 24 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/28 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 34 | 176 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Andre Williams | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Cruz | 5 | 6 | 107 | 1 |
| Larry Donnell | 6 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 3 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 5 | 10 | 27 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 2 | 2 | 22 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.4%
Expected total
42.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.24