Closing spread
HOU -6.5
Total
44
Model margin
+4.0est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.016EPA / play+0.032
- 39.9%Success rate44.3%
- +0.054EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.054EPA / rush-0.149
- 9.5%Explosive rate8.5%
- +0.30CPOE+4.58
- 36.5%Third-down rate36.4%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
- 1.89Points / drive1.91
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 5–1 since 1999
NYG have won 5 straight. Meetings average 39 points. HOU are 2-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 25/29 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 17 | 82 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Wayne Gallman | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 9 | 10 | 109 | 0 |
| Sterling Shepard | 6 | 7 | 80 | 1 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 3 | 39 | 1 |
| Saquon Barkley | 5 | 5 | 35 | 0 |
| Evan Engram | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Wayne Gallman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 24/40 | 385 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 10 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fuller | 5 | 11 | 101 | 1 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 10 | 86 | 0 |
| Ryan Griffin | 2 | 4 | 44 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 5 | 6 | 41 | 1 |
| Vyncint Smith | 1 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Bruce Ellington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
4.87%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.7%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.97