2018 · Week 3

Final

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

27·22

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

Total

44

Model margin

+4.0est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Giants

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Giants

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsGiants wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Giantsedge mapTexans
  • +0.016EPA / play+0.032
  • 39.9%Success rate44.3%
  • +0.054EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.054EPA / rush-0.149
  • 9.5%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +0.30CPOE+4.58
  • 36.5%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.1%
  • 1.89Points / drive1.91
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 6–1 since 1999

NYG have won 6 straight. Meetings average 40.3 points. HOU are 2-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7NYG @ HOU27–21NYG
2022 · W10HOU @ NYG16–24NYG
2014 · W3HOU @ NYG17–30NYG
2010 · W5NYG @ HOU34–10NYG
2006 · W9HOU @ NYG10–14NYG
2002 · W12NYG @ HOU14–16HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYG–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001169Field goal0–3
NYGQ1 10:101080Touchdown7–3
HOUQ1 4:10311Punt7–3
NYGQ1 2:031048Field goal10–3
HOUQ2 11:4946Punt10–3
NYGQ2 10:34964Field goal13–3
HOUQ2 4:3534Punt13–3
NYGQ2 3:16671Touchdown20–3
HOUQ2 1:20770Field goal20–6
NYGQ3 15:00515Punt20–6
HOUQ3 11:54641Field goal20–9
NYGQ3 8:41420Punt20–9
HOUQ3 5:42528Turnover20–9
NYGQ3 3:4741Punt20–9
HOUQ3 1:57646Turnover20–9
NYGQ4 14:0544Punt20–9
HOUQ4 11:09977Touchdown20–15
NYGQ4 7:37977Touchdown27–15
HOUQ4 2:081175Touchdown27–22
NYGQ4 0:0100End of half27–22

Box score

Individual performances

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning25/2929720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Saquon Barkley17824.81
Wayne Gallman6254.20
Jonathan Stewart284.00
Odell Beckham Jr.100.00
Eli Manning1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.9101090
Sterling Shepard67801
Rhett Ellison33391
Saquon Barkley55350
Evan Engram11190
Cody Latimer12150
Wayne Gallman0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson24/4038521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Deshaun Watson5367.20
Alfred Blue4133.30
Lamar Miller10101.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Will Fuller5111011
DeAndre Hopkins610860
Ryan Griffin24440
Lamar Miller56411
Vyncint Smith12280
Jordan Akins11180
Bruce Ellington11100
Alfred Blue1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +6.53.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Giants.

Half-point at risk

4.87%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.7%

Expected total

43.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.23
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.97