Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.011
- 45.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.017EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- -3.95CPOE+0.26
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.0%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/41 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 19/32 | 249 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 79 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89