Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
38
Model margin
+3.9est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play+0.011
- 45.6%Success rate42.5%
- -0.017EPA / dropback-0.026
- -0.017EPA / rush+0.053
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.6%
- -3.95CPOE+0.26
- 38.8%Third-down rate39.0%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate61.4%
- 1.77Points / drive1.59
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYG–JAX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 12:50 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| JAX | Q1 11:38 | 7 | 52 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| NYG | Q1 7:40 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q1 5:26 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 3–3 |
| NYG | Q1 0:54 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–3 |
| JAX | Q2 14:53 | 8 | 57 | Touchdown | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 10:15 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 8:34 | 6 | 27 | Punt | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 4:53 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 3:16 | 4 | 25 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q2 1:50 | 5 | 26 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:49 | 4 | 20 | End of half | 3–10 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–10 |
| JAX | Q3 14:07 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| NYG | Q3 9:43 | 12 | 65 | Touchdown | 10–13 |
| JAX | Q3 6:32 | 11 | 59 | Field goal | 10–16 |
| NYG | Q3 0:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–16 |
| JAX | Q4 15:00 | 4 | 60 | Touchdown | 10–23 |
| NYG | Q4 12:36 | 8 | 19 | Turnover | 10–23 |
| JAX | Q4 9:29 | 7 | 39 | Field goal | 10–26 |
| NYG | Q4 5:39 | 4 | 52 | Turnover | 10–26 |
| JAX | Q4 4:29 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–26 |
| NYG | Q4 3:24 | 8 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 10–26 |
| JAX | Q4 1:43 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–26 |
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/41 | 230 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 19/32 | 249 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 24 | 79 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 9 | 45 | 5.0 | 1 |
| David Garrard | 9 | 31 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Reggie Williams | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.5%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.32
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.89