Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
35.5
Model margin
+7.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.269EPA / play+0.008
- 40.3%Success rate41.7%
- -0.158EPA / dropback+0.151
- -0.424EPA / rush-0.177
- 8.6%Explosive rate9.6%
- 33.9%Third-down rate38.8%
- 29.3%Red-zone TD rate44.5%
- 0.22Points / drive1.46
- 1.4%Turnover rate2.3%
- +0.014EPA / play allowed-0.060
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. NYG are 2-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 19 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYG | Q1 13:33 | 8 | 51 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 10:54 | 4 | 35 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q1 8:21 | 17 | 86 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 14:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 14:02 | 12 | 54 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q2 7:19 | 6 | 39 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYG | Q2 4:21 | 12 | 64 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| JAX | Q2 0:09 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 0–14 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 58 | Field goal | 0–17 |
| JAX | Q3 11:54 | 9 | 16 | Turnover on downs | 0–17 |
| NYG | Q3 8:04 | 2 | 53 | Touchdown | 0–24 |
| JAX | Q3 7:18 | 7 | 61 | Field goal | 3–24 |
| NYG | Q3 3:16 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–24 |
| JAX | Q3 0:55 | 4 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 3–24 |
| NYG | Q4 14:56 | 4 | 22 | Turnover | 3–24 |
| JAX | Q4 13:01 | 17 | 63 | Touchdown | 10–24 |
| NYG | Q4 5:20 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 10–24 |
| JAX | Q4 4:11 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 17–24 |
| NYG | Q4 1:47 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 17–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 23/38 | 230 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Brunell | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Smith | 10 | 15 | 123 | 1 |
| Bobby Shaw | 5 | 7 | 65 | 1 |
| Kyle Brady | 3 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Stacey Mack | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Pete Mitchell | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Pat Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Fred Taylor | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerry Collins | 20/28 | 228 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Ron Dayne | 13 | 52 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 4 | 4 | 62 | 0 |
| Ron Dixon | 4 | 6 | 46 | 1 |
| Amani Toomer | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Tim Carter | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Dan Campbell | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Ron Dayne | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Charles Stackhouse | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.7%
Expected total
41.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+5.04
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+7.52