Closing spread
NYG -3
Total
44
Model margin
+0.5est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.014EPA / play-0.161
- 41.2%Success rate37.6%
- +0.072EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.147EPA / rush-0.114
- 7.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- +0.79CPOE-7.00
- 43.5%Third-down rate32.0%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.78Points / drive0.97
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 4–3 since 1999
Meetings average 42.6 points. JAX are 5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 24/34 | 247 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 26 | 91 | 3.5 | 2 |
| Andre Williams | 8 | 21 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 7 | 8 | 90 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 5 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 4 | 52 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 5 | 3 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 21/35 | 194 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 68 | 13.6 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 11 | 44 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 6 | 8 | 75 | 1 |
| Allen Hurns | 4 | 8 | 42 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 4 | 8 | 35 | 0 |
| Clay Harbor | 1 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Denard Robinson | 3 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jordan Todman | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
7.29%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.5%
Expected total
42.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.95
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.54